Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday.
This mornings 6 AM MDT computer model forecast run of the GFS just refuses to give up and once again adds to our storm totals in much of New Mexico. 20" for Carlsbad, 17" for Artesia, 14" for Roswell, 13" for the Clovis area, 17" for the Corna area. This has been consistent for three days now with an emphasis on snow bands just clobbering many areas. This model has and continues to be the outliner meaning that it does not agree with the others...much higher snowfall total forecasts. The Noontime MDT run of this model was about 4" less for the Pecos Valley. So obviously this model is on to something but will we see this much snow. Time will tell but my gut feeling is that it isn't that far off with its forecasts.
Storm total snowfall forecasts issued by the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office this evening have gone up. Clovis/Portales, Roswell, and Ruidoso now 8"-12", with pockets of up to 18" nearby.
3 AM MDT Tuesday Morning.
Pockets of freezing rain and sleet are forecast to break out around 3 AM tonight over SE NM. Some of the other models develop this activity by around midnight.
6 AM MDT Tuesday Morning.
By 6 AM Tuesday morning, widespread freezing rain with pockets of sleet is forecast to spread over SE NM. Don't be surprised if thunder isn't heard tonight into tomorrow morning either. Snow will be mixing in from the west. By noontime, widespread moderate to heavy snow will blanket the area and continue into at least Wednesday morning.
My gut feeling is that widespread snowfall totals of 6" to 12" are likely in the local area with pockets of 12" to 18" especially over and near the mountains.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!