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Monday, October 26, 2020

Models & Forecasts Trending For Heavier Snow - This Storm Will Be One For The Record Books!

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

NWS Albuquerque Ice Accumulation Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

Storm Damages Likely Area-Wide!

(Click On The Link To View Them).



True to its theme the past few days the GFS computer forecast model continues (unbelievably) to deepen our historic cutoff mid-upper level storm approaching from the west. It even is forecasting a colder storm in which the net effect will be to produce even heavier snowfall totals across the area. Again this winter storm when it's all said and done has a real chance of being the strongest, coldest, and most impactful storm ever to hammer the area not only in October but this early in the season! It will be one for the record books!

Last night's 6 PM MDT run of the GFS forecast model above is just simply mind-blowing. This particular model run is now forecasting a storm total by Wednesday at sunset of:

Carlsbad area 16"
Artesia area 13"
Roswell area 13"
Ruidoso area 11"
Cloudcroft area18"-24"
Clovis & Portales area 12"
Clines Corner 19"
Tucumcari 15" 
Corona & Vauch areas 18"-24"

Will this much snow actually fall. There is a reasonable chance that "yes" in some areas we may see totals this high! Will actually happen is yet to be determined. The key takeaway is that the models (others as well) are trending towards heavier snowfall amounts for the area!

Update at 7:30 AM MDT

Clovis & Portales areas- 6" to 12"
Roswell area- 6" to 12"
Artesia-Carlsbad-Hobbs area 8"
Ruidoso area- 6" to 12"
Cloudcroft Mayhill areas- 8"
Alamogordo & Las Cruces areas- 1" to 4"
Midland/Odessa/Andrews/Seminole/Lamesa areas- 6"-8"
Lubbock area- 6"

Dangerous, life-threatening conditions are expected to develop on many of New Mexico's roads and highways today into Wednesday. Expect to see area road closures possibly as early as today but more so tonight into Wednesday. By late this afternoon into Wednesday it is highly recommended that travel not be attempted unless it is absolutely necessary. 

Freezing drizzle and freezing rain is forecast to develop over parts of the area today and continue into tonight. Sleet and areas of snow will also develop. Conditions are forecast to deteriorate tonight and especially Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper-level storm moves along our southern border just to the south of us. Accumulating snow on top of the ice and sleet will make many roads impossible to travel upon especially tonight into Wednesday.

Ice accumulations on trees, power lines, and other exposed surfaces are currently forecast to be up to around 1/2 of an inch, possibly higher in places. Downed trees and power lines will cause power outages area-wide. This due to the ice accumulations and heavy snows which initially will be wet. As colder air settles in over the area the snow will be drier in nature Tuesday into Wednesday. This will pose a blowing and drifting snow problem for the area.

Accumulating ice and heavy wet snow will likely cause extensive damage to area trees including Pecan Orchards which still have their leaves and are loaded with nuts. Many farmers have not begun their cotton harvesting in SE NM and are just starting in parts of W TX. Sadly damage to their crop may be widespread or even a total loss in places due to the ice and snow.

Blowing snow and drifting snow will also aggravate driving conditions and whiteouts are possible in the heavier snow bands. 

Livestock and range animals will suffer from this storm as well as farm animals especially the local dairy's. Heavy wet snow and freezing rain will stress the animals and make finding feed in open country impossible for them for several days. Ranchers and farmers should be taking steps now to prepare their animals as much as possible for the incoming storm. 

Wind chill temperatures are forecast to plummet into the single digits across SE New Mexico and much of W TX tonight into Tuesday morning. They will be in the teens today.

High/Low temperatures area-wide today & tonight:

Clovis & Portales- Mid 20's/Mid teens
Roswell area- Low 30's/Low 20's
Artesia-Carlsbad Mid-Upper 30's/Low 20's
Hobbs area- Mid 30's/Low 20's
Ruidoso area- Mid 40's?/Near 10
Cloudcroft area- Mid 40's?/Single digits

Tuesday's Highs/Lows:

Tuesday's highs will only be in the 20's for most of us with lows in the teens and 20's. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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