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Connecting The Dots Between Solar Cycles/Volcano Activity & Their Role In Our Planets Weather & Climate Cycles.

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January 9, 2026. Stormy Winter Skies. West Of Hope, New Mexico.  Several years ago, during the middle of the very heated and controversial climate change propaganda and debates, a group of respected scientists publicly came out with this statement: "It's the sun, stupid." That may offend some, but to this day it remains one of my all-time favorite quotes.  The sun and its associated solar cycles drive the planet's climate and weather. Volcanoes also play a major role, and the sun plays a major role in how and when they erupt. When they reach the major or historical eruption stage, they alter the planets short term weather and long term climate cycles.  The solar cycles, especially the solar minima cycles and grand solar minimums have drastically altered our weather and climate throughout history. Most notably during the last Little Ice Age. Many believe we are due or overdue for another such event.  Add to this mix the sun's effects on the world's ocean temper...
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Near 80 Today - Windy Thursday - A Freeze Saturday Morning For SE NM?

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October 30, 2022.
Looking SW At Sierra Blanca Peak From Nogal, NM.

(At 7 AM MDT Wed, Nov 2, 2022).



Cold air has progressively been getting colder with time across northern and central Alaska and the northwestern half of Canada. Time to start watching these areas for arctic cold fronts moving south into the US. Many locations this morning are in the single digits with some negative temps noted.


At 8 :31 AM MDT This Wednesday Morning.

Once again low clouds and pockets of fog developed overnight in Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. Yesterday morning the visibility dropped below 1/4 of a mile in the Carlsbad and Hobbs areas. This morning (as of 8:45 AM MDT) the visibility in the fog has dropped down to 1/2 of a mile at the Roswell Airport, and less than 1/4 of a mile at the Artesia and Carlsbad Airports. The Hobbs Airport was reporting 3 miles in fog.

Breezy Today - Windy Thursday & Friday.


Valid At Noon MDT Thursday.

ECMWF 500 MB (18,000') Analysis.

At Midnight Wednesday Night.

ECMWF 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Thursday.

ECMWF 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Friday.

Our next storm in line was located near Seattle, Washington at midnight last night. This mid-level storm will drop south into southern Nevada by sunrise Thursday morning. Then the storm swings northeast into northern New Mexico by sunrise Friday morning. 


Valid At 6 PM MDT Thursday Evening.

A Pacific cold front will sweep eastward across New Mexico on Thursday. Moving through Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas Thursday night and Friday morning.



Today.


Thursday.


Friday.


NWS NDFD Low Temp Forecast.

Saturday.


Ahead of the incoming storm and cold front we will see our high temps today reach up into the upper 70's to near 80 across the Southeastern Plains. Thursday's highs will be in the mid to upper 70's. Highs across the local area on Friday will be near 60 to the low 60's. Lows Saturday morning will be mid 30's...perhaps colder along with the possibility of a freeze.

Highs today in the Ruidoso area will be near 60 and highs on Thursday will be in the mid 50's. Highs on Friday will be near 40 to the low 40's. Lows Saturday morning will be in the mid 20's.

The Cloudcroft area will see highs today in the upper 40's to near 50 and highs on Thursday will be in the mid 40's. Highs on Friday will be near 30 in the Cloudcroft area. Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper teens to near 20.


As the storm crosses New Mexico on Thursday strong jet stream winds at the 30,000' level (140 knots/161 mph) will aide in strengthening the low-mid level winds across New Mexico. 

Southwest winds will increase across the lowlands of southern New Mexico, the Southeastern Plains, and parts of West Texas on Thursday to sustained speeds of 2-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. These winds will shift around to the west on Friday and gust up into the 30-40 mph range.

Across the Sacramento mountains southwest winds will increase to sustained speeds on Thursday and Thursday night to 25-35 mph with gusts to 45-55 mph. Westerly winds on Friday will gust up to around 30-40 mph. 

Localized areas of blowing dust will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. 



NWS NDFD Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.




Snowfall with this storm will be limited to the western and northern mountains for the most part. At least the heaviest accumulating totals. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for parts of the northern mountains from midnight tonight through noon on Friday. 

There is a slight chance for light snow showers across the higher elevations of the Sac's on Friday. Since the center of this storm will be north of us and given that it is a dry storm this should be a non snow producer.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

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My Top 10 Most Popular Posts

Artesia, NM Mothership Supercell Thunderstorm. 9-17-2016.

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Blog Updated 9-19-2016 @ 6:31 PM MDT. Diane & I Chase A Monster Of A Supercell!  Saturday, Sept 17, 2016.  Courtesy Of Diane J. Malone. My Wife (Diane) And I Took Old Yo Crossing Rd. South Out Of Roswell And Finally Got Out In Front Of This Monster Of A Supercell Thunderstorm On St. Hwy 13. She Took This Photo Near Mile Marker 11. Pretty Much Describes Rural Southeastern New Mexico. 3:09 PM MDT: This Beast Had Multiple Wall Clouds That At Times Showed Slow Rotation And At Other Times Was Spinning Like A Top. This Was A Ground Hugger At Times As Well. Initially When This Storm Developed South Of Picacho It Was Showing A Northeastward Movement On Radar. That Didn't Last Long As It Intensified And Started Heading East Then Made A Right Turn (Right Mover) And Took Off To The Southeast. At Times Moving Southeastward At 15-20 MPH Then It Would Accelerating To 40 MPH.  3:47 PM MDT: We Are About 1 Mile West Of Hope In Western Eddy County On ...
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Monster Of A Snowstorm Coming This Christmas Weekend?

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New Mexico This Coming Christmas Weekend? Those of us who live in New Mexico have developed a unique sense of humor when it comes to our weather. I've often said that we live in a place where extremes more often than not are normal. Take for example the rest of this weeks forecast for Carlsbad depicted below. Latest NWS Forecast For Carlsbad, New Mexico. My high temperature here at our home yesterday was 74°F. Contrast that to what's coming this weekend...depicted below. Its not unusual at all to have high temps in the 70's or even the 80's ahead of a strong winter storm locally. We saw this with the major snowstorms in December 1987, December 1997, and February 2011, and with other strong winter storms too. Long Range Model Forecasts On Weekend Storm. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST European (ECMWF) 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 11AM MST Sunday, Dec ...
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Powerful Winter Storm Is Hammering New Mexico! Worst Is Yet To Come.

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Blog Updated At 9:57 PM MST. Courtesy Of Glen Brazell. Shared On Twitter By Kerry Jones. Nearly 30" The Ground In Ruidoso, NM. Downtown Ruidoso, New Mexico. Ruidoso Web Cam Snapshot At 1:54 PM MST This Afternoon. National Weather Service Watches & Warnings In Effect. As Of 5 AM MST Friday, December 28, 2018. Click On This Link To Open Up The Latest Updated Map. Then Once The Map Opens Up, Click Anywhere On The Map To Be Re-directed To Your Area Of Interest. The NWS Office That Has Forecast And Warning Responsibility For That Location Will Have The Latest Weather Information Posted On Their Web Page. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Analysis. Valid At 11 PM MST Thursday Evening. As of midnight last night a slow moving and powerful closed upper level low was located over northern Arizona. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Today.  This winter storm is forecast to continue sinking slowly ...
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25th Anniversary Of The Carlsbad, NM (May 31, 1991) Tornado Coming Up.

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Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT. Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them. On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with.  The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening. The Tornado's path is circled in red...
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Major Winter Storm May Paralyze/Bury Parts Of NM & Nearby Areas Tonight Into Wednesday!

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Winter Storm Watches & Warnings Are In Effect - Click On This Link For Additional Details. U.S. GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday. Today's (Sunday) noon mdt run of the GFS forecast model is just plain nuts. Its trend has been to produce heavier snowfall totals and aerial coverages with each new run over the past day. This has me worried. 19" for Roswell, 12" for Artesia, 15" for Clovis, 28" for the Fort Sumner area, and 17" for Corona! This would be wild in the dead of winter but is absolutely unheard of in the part of the world in October! The last time we saw something like this come to pass was the Blizzard of December 27, 28, 29th, 2015. Will history repeats itself? I hope not but I will admit that I am worried. My feeling is that we will see snowfall accumulations of around 6" to 12" in SE NM and 6" to 18" in the mountains.  GFS Freezing Rain Accumulation Forecast. Valid Tonight Through PM MDT Wednes...
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2011 Skywarn Spotter Training Classes & My Thoughts.

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Artesia, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class.  Midland National Weather Service Warning  Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper. Midland National Weather Service Warning  Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper. Roswell, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class. Albuquerque National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter & Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones. Summary. Our first Eddy County  Skywarn Spotter Training meeting kicked off in Artesia this past Monday night. A total of 16 people attended. This was down a little from the past couple of years. Our second class was held in Carlsbad Tuesday night and there were 17 people in attendance. This was about half as many people that attended last year. I will have to go back and check but there have been some 160 or so people in Eddy County sign up for our ...
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Tonight's GFS Is As Drunk As This Mornings ECMWF. Historic Snowstorm Next Weekend?

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GFS Drinking Same Kool-Aid As ECMWF? Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Surface Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Accumulated Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. U.S. GFS 10-Day Forecasts. Albuquerque, New Mexico. Clines Corners, New Mexico. Cannon Air Force Base - Clovis, New Mexico. Corona, New Mexico. Sierra Blanca Regional Airport - Ruidoso, New Mexico. Roswell, New Mexico. Artesia, New Mexico. Carlsbad, New Mexico. Hobbs, New Mexico. Guadalupe Pass, Texas. El Paso, Texas. Blog Updated @ 12:15 AM MST: Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Just took a look at the tonight's run of the European model which just came in. Its forecasting snowfall totals of 26" fo...
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Major Winter Storm To Hammer New Mexico & West Texas Thanksgiving Week!

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Blog Updated At (;15 AM MST Sunday, Nov 24th, 2019. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Analysis. At 11 PM MST Saturday Night. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid For 2 PM MST Tuesday. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid For 5 AM MST Thanksgiving Morning. A Thanksgiving To Remember! Thanksgiving week this year will be one to remember it appears. As of this Sunday morning a cutoff upper level low remains parked well southwest of San Diego, California. This storm will get kicked to the southeast, weaken, and eventually get absorbed by a strong upper level trough of low pressure diving southward out of the northern Rockies on Tuesday. By Thanksgiving a large, deep, and cold mid-upper level closed low is forecast to be centered near central California. The other models are coming more in line with the GFS and its forecasts but there still remain differences in the timing, strength, and location of the storms to affect our area next week. Surface M...
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Are We Fixing To Go From Drought To Flood In SE NM?

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Blog Updated At 1:45 PM MDT Saturday, May 19, 2018. May 24, 2013. Looking Back To The West Of Hope. Big Changes Coming Starting Tonight. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday, May 21, 2018. Surface Map Analysis. Valid At 6 AM MDT This Saturday Morning. Temperatures At 10 AM This Morning. Temperatures At 1 PM MDT This Afternoon. Now that's a stout cold front. Take a look at these temperatures as of 1 PM MDT this Saturday afternoon. As Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas climbs up into the 90's the plains of northeastern Colorado, most of Nebraska, Wyoming, and parts of Montana are in the 40's and 50's!  NWS MesoWest Reported Low Temperatures This Morning. Surface Map Forecast. Strong Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight. A strong cold front is forecast to move southward down the Eastern Plains of New Mexico late tonight into Sunday morning. Low temperatures across the plains ...
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Cloudcroft & Ruidoso, NM Seasonal Snowfall Totals.

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Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Oct 1st, 2019 - January 19th, 2020). January 11th, 2020. South Of Cloudcroft, New Mexico. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Cloudcroft, New Mexico 8,750'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Ruidoso, New Mexico 6,950'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. As a kid growing up in Artesia, New Mexico I always was fascinated by the snowfall in the Sacramento mountains. Especially in the Cloudcroft and Ruidoso areas. Many times Cloudcroft would see their first snowfall by Halloween. It was not unusual to see snow on the ground from around Thanksgiving through Easter in many of these years.  Sierra Blanca Peak (White Mountain or Old Baldy) west of Ruidoso more often than not was coated with snow from before Thanksgiving to after Easter as well.  If you have been thinking that it does not snow as much in the Sacramento mountains as i...
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This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely upon during severe weather. Do not rely solely on the Internet. Be weather-aware, plan ahead, have a backup plan, and be ready to act before severe weather strikes your location.