Severe T-Storms Late Afternoon & Evening In SE NM - Mountain Snows - First High Wind Event Next Tuesday.
Carlsbad, New Mexico.
Here it is mid-February, and it already feels like spring is poking its head up. Not that uncommon this time of the year. Remember the meteorological beginning of spring is March 1st, even though the calendar beginning of spring is March 20th. Not to worry, winter will continue to pop its head up from time to time just to remind us that it's not done with us yet.
A Pacific cold front will sweep southeastward across the state today, producing slightly cooler temps across the state today into Sunday.
A mid-upper level closed low will continue to slide east from west of the Baja Peninsula this morning along the U.S. and Mexican International Border, today into Saturday mid-day. Lift and abundant mid-upper level moisture streaming northeast into the region ahead of this low will help to produce widespread showers with a few thunderstorms across the state today into Saturday.
Rainfall totals by Saturday afternoon across the lowlands and valleys of the state are forecast to range from around a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch. Higher totals are possible with any thunderstorm.
Rainfall totals by Saturday afternoon across the mountains are forecast to range from around a quarter of an inch up to around a half of an inch. Higher totals are possible with thunderstorms.
A few marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across far southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin late this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be quarter-sized hail or larger, strong thunderstorm wind gusts, frequent cloud to ground lighting strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. These storms will move generally off to the east at a fairly good clip, so the flash flood threat is not high. However, a few of the stronger storms or repeating storms may pose a localized flash flood threat mainly across the Permian Basin of West Texas.
In fact, at 12:45 PM MST this Friday afternoon, the Santa Teresa Airport west of El Paso is reporting a thunderstorm. Gusty westerly winds will develop ahead of the approaching cold front this afternoon and continue into this evening in many areas. Gusts are forecast to be in the 25-35 mph range, with some higher gusts in the mountains and with thunderstorms.
A mix of rain and snow showers is forecast for the Capitan and Sacramento mountains this afternoon into Saturday morning. Snow levels will generally be around 8,000' today into early tonight, and those of you who live in these areas may see an inch or so of new snow. Snow levels will drop early Saturday morning down to around 7,000'. Ski Apache may see up to 4" of new snow by Saturday morning.
Severe thunderstorms are not common in New Mexico in February. But on Feb 23, 2005, golf ball-sized hail was reported in Carlsbad, while quarter-sized hail (1" in diameter) was reported in Artesia. On Feb 8, 2009, penny to quarter-sized hail was reported in Eddy (Carlsbad), De Baca, Roosevelt, and Quay Counties.
Next week looks to deliver our first High Wind/Blowing Dust/High Fire Danger Event to the state, especially Tuesday and Wednesday, as a strong winter storm hammers the West Coast and Great Basin, and the jet stream sends upper-level disturbances east into the state. Round two looks to be the end of next week, with another chance for mountain snows and lowland rain showers.
SPC AC 131951Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional hail and gusty winds this evening into the overnight hours across parts of the southern Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. Recent satellite imagery continues to show a shortwave trough extending from the western Great Basin to off the central Baja Peninsula. A lead vorticity maximum is ejecting northeastward ahead of the main shortwave across northern Mexico, and ascent attendant to this feature will likely begin interacting with the northwestern periphery of the returning low-level moisture this evening. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this interaction should support isolated thunderstorms across northwest TX and southwest OK. Isolated hail is the primary risk with this activity. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand tonight from northwest TX/southwest OK into much of west TX as persistent large-scale ascent is augmented by a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection. A few stronger storms and/or clusters remain possible overnight, with perhaps even an embedded supercell. A transition to a mix of hail/wind potential is still expected during the overnight hours as the convective mode trends more linear. Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across OK overnight, supported by strengthening warm-air advection, strong shear, and modest buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/ ...Southern Plains... An upper trough over Baja California late this morning will move eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Rockies by early Saturday morning. Gradually strengthening low-level flow will continue to advect somewhat richer moisture northwestward from the TX Hill Country (mostly 50s surface dewpoints) into parts of west TX and western/central OK through the period. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates present will support around 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE by this evening across the southern High Plains. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings show strong effective bulk shear (around 50-70 kt) this evening/overnight as southwesterly mid/upper-level flow strengthens with the approach of the upper trough, which will likely support thunderstorm organization. Isolated thunderstorms should initially develop on the northwest periphery of the low-level moisture return over parts of northwest TX and vicinity late this afternoon/early evening with some hail threat. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough approaches the southern High Plains later this evening, a more extensive southwest to northeast corridor of convection is expected. One or more clusters may eventually evolve into linear bands and develop east-northeastward along/near an eastward-moving Pacific front. One of these linear clusters with perhaps embedded supercells seems likely to occur early Saturday morning (after 14/06Z) from parts of west into northwest TX as stronger forcing for ascent overspreads this region. Mainly an isolated severe hail risk with the strongest updrafts this afternoon/evening should transition to a mix of hail/wind potential during the overnight hours as the convective mode becomes more linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection over OK tonight will favor primarily elevated strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of occasional hail, perhaps extending as far north as southern KS during the pre-dawn hours Saturday. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 2003Z (1:03PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1207 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1159 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 - An upper-level storm system will bring medium to high chances (40-90%) of showers/storms for most areas late tonight into Saturday. - A few storms may be strong to severe across the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend. Main threats with strongest storms are hail and heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out localized flash flooding, especially for areas in the northern Permian Basin. - Following breezy to gusty west/northwest winds Saturday afternoon/evening, winds become calmer Sunday, before becoming breezy again next week. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1040 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 941 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026 - A Pacific system will bring widespread rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, and mountain snow this afternoon through early Saturday. A few inches of snow are forecast above 8,500ft with minor travel impacts possible in the mountains. - The jet stream will bring increasingly windy conditions next week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday, with potential for more precipitation across western and northern NM. - There is a threat for the rapid spread of fire across eastern NM early next week, especially with stronger winds on Tuesday and Wednesday. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1056 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 927 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026 - Pacific storm brings scattered rain showers through tonight. Snow will be limited to elevations above 8,000 feet with minimal accumulations. - Mild and dry this weekend, followed by breezy to windy days starting Monday. &&
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1128 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026 NMZ210-213-214-140700- /O.CON.KABQ.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-260214T1200Z/ Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- 1128 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches above 8,500ft with lesser amounts below. * WHERE...Northern and Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and Tusas Mountains Including Chama. * WHEN...Until 5 AM MST Saturday. * IMPACTS...High mountain roads and passes will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult. Tire traction will be reduced. Extend the distance between your vehicle and the vehicle in front of you. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road conditions, dial 511 or 1.800.432.4269, or visit http://nmroads.com. && $$ 11
NWS 3-Day Storm Total Snowfall Forecasts.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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