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Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Another Breezy Day.

Today Into Friday.

Blog updated at 2:40 PM MST.

Guadalupe Mtn's
Remains In Effect Until 2 PM MST.
West 35-45G60 MPH.

It is a tad bit windy in the Guadalupe mountains early this morning. At 6 AM MST westerly winds were gusting to 55 mph at the Bowl Raws located just north of Guadalupe Peak, 54 mph at the Pinery Raws in Pine Springs, and 51 mph at Guadalupe Pass.

Another mostly sunny and breezy day is anticipated today across the southeastern plains. Westerly winds will kick up to around 20-25G35 mph with our afternoon highs in the low 60.s.

A cold front will move into the area tomorrow morning with slightly cooler air overspreading the area. Our afternoon highs will range from 55-60 tomorrow. Friday's highs should range from 50-55.
Strong Late Winter Storm Thu - Sat?

Our current storm located over northwestern New Mexico is forecast to move eastward and out of the state by this afternoon. It surprised some folks in the Albuquerque area overnight with some impressive snowfall totals which include: 8" in Sedellio east of Albuquerque, and 7" 8 miles ENE of Albuquerque. For additional totals please visit this link.

Our next winter storm to affect the state and local area was located over northern California early this morning. It is forecast to continue digging to the south today and should be located over southern California by sunset this evening.

The WRF-NMM model is the slowest and strongest with this next winter storm. It has a strong closed upper-level low located just south of Yuma, Arizona in northwestern Mexico by sunrise Friday morning.

In fact the WRF-NMM drags the strong closed upper-level low slowly eastward across northern Mexico, just to our south through midday on Saturday.This would be a good position for the storm to produce widespread precipitation across the area..

If this forecast holds true then we will see some decent rain and snowfall totals across the local area.Scattered rain showers are expected to break out Thursday night into Friday. A rain/snow mix may even be possible Friday night into Saturday morning, with the mountains and parts of the lower elevations potentially seeing some accumulating snowfall.

Last nights runs of the GFS model opens the low up into a trough of low pressure and sweeps it eastward faster than the ECMWF or WRF-NMM models. As has been the case all winter long we will have to have wait and see which model has the best handle on this storm.

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