Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Warmer Than Normal - Weekend Storm.






Valid At 11 AM MST Saturday Nov 10, 2012.

Valid At 11 AM MST Saturday Nov 10, 2012.

Temperature Departures From Normal.
 Valid At 11 AM MST Saturday Nov 10, 2012.

Temperature Departures From Normal.
Valid At 11 AM MST Sunday Nov 11, 2012.

We can expect to see a fairy tranquil week of weather, or least until Friday. A strong and cold upper-level storm (see the GFS 500 MB forecast map posted above) is forecast to swing southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska, and into the Great Basin this week. This storm will sweep across New Mexico Friday into Sunday.

Our afternoon high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 70's today, and near 80 to the mid 80's Wednesday into Friday. These above normal temps will fall with the arrival of a Pacific cold front on Saturday. Most of us should see the 70's on Saturday, and by Sunday we should see our highs drop down into the 50's and 60's as colder air overspreads the area behind the cold front.

Windy weather is anticipated Friday and Saturday ahead of the cold front. Warm, and very dry downslopping southwesterly winds will kick up as the surface pressure gradient tightens up, and the stronger winds aloft begin mixing down to the surface. Some gusts may exceed 55 mph

Areas of blowing dust may also develop, which could reduce the visibility in some of the normally dust prone locations. These areas will include open or exposed lots, construction sites, fields, and freshly plowed farmlands. Some of these normally dust prone areas may see sudden drops in the visibility below one mile with little to no advanced warning.  

It appears that this storm may be moisture starved. Depending on just how far south the upper-level trough of low pressure is able to drop, will determine just how much snow falls across the states mountains. For now it appears that the western and northern mountains of New Mexico have the best shot at seeing accumulating snowfall. This could change so check back here for additional updates this week. Thanks for stopping by and have a great week!

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Comments

  1. Here comes winter - amazing graphics! What's odd is that this is called a Pacific cold front, given what it is being modified into with the uber-upper-low and that amount of cold building down behind it. Sun-Mon forecasts are for 5-10F below our winter average highs...except it's mid-Nov!

    Hopefully, this doesn't stick around very long.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Lots of cold air with this storm at the mid levels David. 500 MB temps will fall to as low as -25C. You are correct about the front...looks more like a modified Contential Polar airmass, than a Pacific airmass.

    ReplyDelete

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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