Valid @ 11 AM MST Thursday.
Valid @ 5 PM Thursday.
Valid @ 5 PM Thursday.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Thursday.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday.
Los Alamos, NM.
A potentially significant snowstorm appears to be brewing for New Mexico by mid-week. This mornings 12Z/5 AM MST run of the GFS (T1534) Experimental computer forecast model clobbers the Jemez mountains north of Los Alamos with up to 19" of snow by 5 PM Thursday. This particular forecast clobbers portions of the northern mountains and eastern slopes, as well as parts of the northeastern plains and east central plains of New Mexico with heavy snow.
A modified back door arctic cold front will enter northeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and work its way southward into the southeastern plains on Wednesday. Meanwhile a strong upper level storm is forecast by the GFS and Canadian models to approach the state from the west on Wednesday. Both models are hinting at briefly closing this 500 MB Low off over southwest or south central New Mexico on Thursday.
Keep in mind that the exact patch the mid-upper level low takes later this week will be a key factor in determining just where the heaviest snows fall over the state and nearby areas. There remains a strong possibility that additional forecast changes are coming in the next couple of days so take the above model forecasts with a grain of salt.
As is always the case with these southern storms should this one track south of the NM/TX border then southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas would stand a better chance of seeing heavier snowfall than what is currently indicated. If the storm tracks to our north then we miss the heaviest snows.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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