Continued Very Warm Through Wednesday - Rain Later Next Week?

-

Cannon Ski Resort - Franconia, New Hampshire Oct 5, 2016.

Cutoff Low Stalls Near NM Next Week?

GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday, Nov 3, 2016.


European (ECMWF) 500 MB (18,000' MSL Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016.

Canadian (GEM) 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday, Nov 3, 2016.

Our warm and dry October weather is forecast to continue into next Wednesday dominated by a stout ridge of high pressure aloft. By Thursday the GFS, ECMWF, and the GEM models agree that a cutoff upper level low (depicted by each model above at the 500 millibar level, or at 18,000' above seal level) will park itself just south of Arizona or southwest of New Mexico. Nothing unusual about this since these types of storms happen fairly frequently in the fall. By saying it is a cutoff storm this means that the storm itself is cut off from the jet stream flow which will remain well north of the state in Canada. When this happens these storms tend to move little or very slowly and have been known to produce heavy rain and snow across the state. 

Carlsbad's NWS 5-Day Forecast.


Cloudcroft's NWS 5-Day Forecast.


New Mexico Forecasts.


Rain Next Week?

GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, Nov 5, 2016.

GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, Nov 5, 2016.

WPC Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, Nov 5, 2016.

GFS 10-Day Temp & Rainfall Forecast For Artesia, NM.

Heavy rain in November in New Mexico is not something we see a lot of. So when the models crank out 1" to 2" of rainfall from next Thursday into Sunday it catches my eye. Not that its impossible for this to happen, its not, it just does not happen that often.

 Historical Top 10 Rainfall Totals For November. 










Time to throw the caution flag up. These forecasts are 5-7 days out and there could likely be some changes as the models get a better handle of this storm. One thing appears pretty certain is that the airmass over the state will remain too warm for any significant snowfall through next weekend and this includes the northern mountains of the state.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Comments

Post a Comment

Your comments, questions, and feedback on this post/web page are welcome.

My Blog Archive List (July 2010 - August 2025).

Show more

Viewing My Web Page

If you are viewing my web page on your cell phone, please click on the three white bars (Menu Bars) located in the top left-hand corner of the page (only visible on your phone). This is the menu bar, and it opens up additional links and graphics, such as forecast maps, severe weather outlooks, current conditions, radar and satellite links, and more.

My Current Weather Conditions

New Mexico

Texas

Colorado

Arizona

Eddy County

Chaves County Plains & Mtn's

Guadalupe Mtns Eddy & Culberson County

Lea County

Lincoln County

Otero County

My Top 10 Most Popular Posts

Artesia, NM Mothership Supercell Thunderstorm. 9-17-2016.

-
Image
Blog Updated 9-19-2016 @ 6:31 PM MDT. Diane & I Chase A Monster Of A Supercell!  Saturday, Sept 17, 2016.  Courtesy Of Diane J. Malone. My Wife (Diane) And I Took Old Yo Crossing Rd. South Out Of Roswell And Finally Got Out In Front Of This Monster Of A Supercell Thunderstorm On St. Hwy 13. She Took This Photo Near Mile Marker 11. Pretty Much Describes Rural Southeastern New Mexico. 3:09 PM MDT: This Beast Had Multiple Wall Clouds That At Times Showed Slow Rotation And At Other Times Was Spinning Like A Top. This Was A Ground Hugger At Times As Well. Initially When This Storm Developed South Of Picacho It Was Showing A Northeastward Movement On Radar. That Didn't Last Long As It Intensified And Started Heading East Then Made A Right Turn (Right Mover) And Took Off To The Southeast. At Times Moving Southeastward At 15-20 MPH Then It Would Accelerating To 40 MPH.  3:47 PM MDT: We Are About 1 Mile West Of Hope In Western Eddy County On ...
Click On This Link To Read More »

Monster Of A Snowstorm Coming This Christmas Weekend?

-
Image
New Mexico This Coming Christmas Weekend? Those of us who live in New Mexico have developed a unique sense of humor when it comes to our weather. I've often said that we live in a place where extremes more often than not are normal. Take for example the rest of this weeks forecast for Carlsbad depicted below. Latest NWS Forecast For Carlsbad, New Mexico. My high temperature here at our home yesterday was 74°F. Contrast that to what's coming this weekend...depicted below. Its not unusual at all to have high temps in the 70's or even the 80's ahead of a strong winter storm locally. We saw this with the major snowstorms in December 1987, December 1997, and February 2011, and with other strong winter storms too. Long Range Model Forecasts On Weekend Storm. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST European (ECMWF) 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 11AM MST Sunday, Dec ...
Click On This Link To Read More »

Powerful Winter Storm Is Hammering New Mexico! Worst Is Yet To Come.

-
Image
Blog Updated At 9:57 PM MST. Courtesy Of Glen Brazell. Shared On Twitter By Kerry Jones. Nearly 30" The Ground In Ruidoso, NM. Downtown Ruidoso, New Mexico. Ruidoso Web Cam Snapshot At 1:54 PM MST This Afternoon. National Weather Service Watches & Warnings In Effect. As Of 5 AM MST Friday, December 28, 2018. Click On This Link To Open Up The Latest Updated Map. Then Once The Map Opens Up, Click Anywhere On The Map To Be Re-directed To Your Area Of Interest. The NWS Office That Has Forecast And Warning Responsibility For That Location Will Have The Latest Weather Information Posted On Their Web Page. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Analysis. Valid At 11 PM MST Thursday Evening. As of midnight last night a slow moving and powerful closed upper level low was located over northern Arizona. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Today.  This winter storm is forecast to continue sinking slowly ...
Click On This Link To Read More »

25th Anniversary Of The Carlsbad, NM (May 31, 1991) Tornado Coming Up.

-
Image
Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT. Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them. On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with.  The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening. The Tornado's path is circled in red...
Click On This Link To Read More »

Major Winter Storm May Paralyze/Bury Parts Of NM & Nearby Areas Tonight Into Wednesday!

-
Image
Winter Storm Watches & Warnings Are In Effect - Click On This Link For Additional Details. U.S. GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday. Today's (Sunday) noon mdt run of the GFS forecast model is just plain nuts. Its trend has been to produce heavier snowfall totals and aerial coverages with each new run over the past day. This has me worried. 19" for Roswell, 12" for Artesia, 15" for Clovis, 28" for the Fort Sumner area, and 17" for Corona! This would be wild in the dead of winter but is absolutely unheard of in the part of the world in October! The last time we saw something like this come to pass was the Blizzard of December 27, 28, 29th, 2015. Will history repeats itself? I hope not but I will admit that I am worried. My feeling is that we will see snowfall accumulations of around 6" to 12" in SE NM and 6" to 18" in the mountains.  GFS Freezing Rain Accumulation Forecast. Valid Tonight Through PM MDT Wednes...
Click On This Link To Read More »

2011 Skywarn Spotter Training Classes & My Thoughts.

-
Image
Artesia, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class.  Midland National Weather Service Warning  Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper. Midland National Weather Service Warning  Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper. Roswell, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class. Albuquerque National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter & Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones. Summary. Our first Eddy County  Skywarn Spotter Training meeting kicked off in Artesia this past Monday night. A total of 16 people attended. This was down a little from the past couple of years. Our second class was held in Carlsbad Tuesday night and there were 17 people in attendance. This was about half as many people that attended last year. I will have to go back and check but there have been some 160 or so people in Eddy County sign up for our ...
Click On This Link To Read More »

Tonight's GFS Is As Drunk As This Mornings ECMWF. Historic Snowstorm Next Weekend?

-
Image
GFS Drinking Same Kool-Aid As ECMWF? Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Surface Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Accumulated Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. U.S. GFS 10-Day Forecasts. Albuquerque, New Mexico. Clines Corners, New Mexico. Cannon Air Force Base - Clovis, New Mexico. Corona, New Mexico. Sierra Blanca Regional Airport - Ruidoso, New Mexico. Roswell, New Mexico. Artesia, New Mexico. Carlsbad, New Mexico. Hobbs, New Mexico. Guadalupe Pass, Texas. El Paso, Texas. Blog Updated @ 12:15 AM MST: Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Just took a look at the tonight's run of the European model which just came in. Its forecasting snowfall totals of 26" fo...
Click On This Link To Read More »

Major Winter Storm To Hammer New Mexico & West Texas Thanksgiving Week!

-
Image
Blog Updated At (;15 AM MST Sunday, Nov 24th, 2019. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Analysis. At 11 PM MST Saturday Night. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid For 2 PM MST Tuesday. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid For 5 AM MST Thanksgiving Morning. A Thanksgiving To Remember! Thanksgiving week this year will be one to remember it appears. As of this Sunday morning a cutoff upper level low remains parked well southwest of San Diego, California. This storm will get kicked to the southeast, weaken, and eventually get absorbed by a strong upper level trough of low pressure diving southward out of the northern Rockies on Tuesday. By Thanksgiving a large, deep, and cold mid-upper level closed low is forecast to be centered near central California. The other models are coming more in line with the GFS and its forecasts but there still remain differences in the timing, strength, and location of the storms to affect our area next week. Surface M...
Click On This Link To Read More »

Are We Fixing To Go From Drought To Flood In SE NM?

-
Image
Blog Updated At 1:45 PM MDT Saturday, May 19, 2018. May 24, 2013. Looking Back To The West Of Hope. Big Changes Coming Starting Tonight. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday, May 21, 2018. Surface Map Analysis. Valid At 6 AM MDT This Saturday Morning. Temperatures At 10 AM This Morning. Temperatures At 1 PM MDT This Afternoon. Now that's a stout cold front. Take a look at these temperatures as of 1 PM MDT this Saturday afternoon. As Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas climbs up into the 90's the plains of northeastern Colorado, most of Nebraska, Wyoming, and parts of Montana are in the 40's and 50's!  NWS MesoWest Reported Low Temperatures This Morning. Surface Map Forecast. Strong Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight. A strong cold front is forecast to move southward down the Eastern Plains of New Mexico late tonight into Sunday morning. Low temperatures across the plains ...
Click On This Link To Read More »

Cloudcroft & Ruidoso, NM Seasonal Snowfall Totals.

-
Image
Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Oct 1st, 2019 - January 19th, 2020). January 11th, 2020. South Of Cloudcroft, New Mexico. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Cloudcroft, New Mexico 8,750'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Ruidoso, New Mexico 6,950'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. As a kid growing up in Artesia, New Mexico I always was fascinated by the snowfall in the Sacramento mountains. Especially in the Cloudcroft and Ruidoso areas. Many times Cloudcroft would see their first snowfall by Halloween. It was not unusual to see snow on the ground from around Thanksgiving through Easter in many of these years.  Sierra Blanca Peak (White Mountain or Old Baldy) west of Ruidoso more often than not was coated with snow from before Thanksgiving to after Easter as well.  If you have been thinking that it does not snow as much in the Sacramento mountains as i...
Click On This Link To Read More »

My Favorite Blog List.

Show All

Average Daily High/Low Temps & Precipitation

Average Daily High/Low Temps & Precipitation

My Precipitation Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad

My Precipitation Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad

My Snowfall Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

My Snowfall Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Substack

Disclaimer

This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely upon during severe weather. Do not rely solely on the Internet. Be weather-aware, plan ahead, have a backup plan, and be ready to act before severe weather strikes your location.