A Few Got Lucky Concerning Rainfall- Most Of Us Not So Much.
What Happens Down The Road?
Looking at the long range model forecasts this morning it is apparent that for the near term (next 7-10 days) we aren't going to see any major changes with our local weather. This mornings model runs keep the brunt of the monsoonal moisture with the heaviest rainfall west of New Mexico in Arizona over the next week. The short range forecast keep hit and miss thunderstorms over and near the Sacramento and Capitan mountains today through Thursday. After today the southeastern plains look to remain dry through the upcoming weekend with high temps once again flirting with the century mark.
A tropical wave is located off the southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador this morning. A tropical disturbance is forecast to develop in this area over the next 48 hours. By sunrise Saturday morning the GFS forecast model brings a hurricane northward to southwest of the tip of Baja, California. Current GFS model forecasts take this Hurricane northward to within some 500 miles or so southwest of the San Diego coastline by next Tuesday. Last night's run of the European model tracks the Hurricane well west of the central Baja Peninsula by this time. Needless to say I don't put a lot of faith in either models forecasts yet since the Hurricane hasn't even formed. So for now this will be something to watch to see if it plays a role in our weather next week...right now early forecasts say no as far as rainfall is concerned.
This is the time of the year that the eastern Pacific starts getting active with tropical storms. Given this is an El Nino year we may see above normal activity in this region. Historically our late summer and fall months can be very wet during El Nino years with a good deal of our local rainfall coming from these Pacific Hurricanes and Tropical Storms that move inland over Mexico and dissipate, sending their remnant moisture northeastward into New Mexico. Will this be one of those wet late summers and falls?