A Few Got Lucky Concerning Rainfall- Most Of Us Not So Much.

August 2, 2023.

Wet Microburst & Rainfoot.

North Of Dunken, New Mexico.

NWS Midland GRLevel3_2.0 Radar Rainfall Estimate.

New Mexico MRMS 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

As Of 9 AM MDT Tuesday, August 15, 2023.

New Mexico MRMS 72-Hour Rainfall Totals.

As Of 8 AM MDT Tuesday, August 15, 2023.

New Mexico MesoWest 72-Hour Rainfall Totals.

As Of 8 AM MDT Tuesday, August 15, 2023.

New Mexico 72-Hour CoCoRaHS Rainfall Totals.

As Of 8 AM MDT Tuesday, August 15, 2023.

Hit & Miss T-Storms Drop Moderate To Heavy Rainfall.

In some ways this was another bust or let down rainfall event. For a few it was not. The automated weather station located 6 miles south-southeast of Artesia at the Ag Science Center measured a 3-day rainfall total of .90". Other Personal Weather Stations (PWS) in the Artesia area measured anywhere from a little of a tenth of an inch to nearly a half of an inch of rainfall over the past three days.

The Queen Raws has recorded a 3-day total of 1.08" and the Bat Draw Raws located at the Carlsbad Caverns Visitor Center has recorded a 3-day total of 1.14". The Dog Canyon Raws has recorded a 3-day total of .56". A Personal Weather Station (PWS) in Lovington has recorded .40", and a PWS in east Alamogordo .30". 

Radar estimated that as much as 2.75" may have fallen south of the Black River Village last night. And as much as 3.80" may have fallen over the past 3-days just east of Maljamar. What looked like a good chance for moderate to heavy rainfall in the mountains over the past three days turned out to be a bust. 

Long Range Outlook. 

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Rainfall Forecast.

CIMSS Tropical Storm Ir Satellite Image.

(Invest 90E).
At 8:30 AM MDT Tuesday, August 15, 2023.

7-Day Tropical Outlook.

ATCF Guidance Forecast.

This Mornings 6 AM MDT Model Forecast.

GFS 6-Hour Precip/MSLP Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Saturday, August 19, 2023.

GFS 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Saturday, August 19, 2023.

What Happens Down The Road?

Looking at the long range model forecasts this morning it is apparent that for the near term (next 7-10 days) we aren't going to see any major changes with our local weather. This mornings model runs keep the brunt of the monsoonal moisture with the heaviest rainfall west of New Mexico in Arizona over the next week. The short range forecast keep hit and miss thunderstorms over and near the Sacramento and Capitan mountains today through Thursday. After today the southeastern plains look to remain dry through the upcoming weekend with high temps once again flirting with the century mark. 

A tropical wave is located off the southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador this morning. A tropical disturbance is forecast to develop in this area over the next 48 hours. By sunrise Saturday morning the GFS forecast model brings a hurricane northward to southwest of the tip of Baja, California. Current GFS model forecasts take this Hurricane northward to  within some 500 miles or so southwest of the San Diego coastline by next Tuesday. Last night's run of the European model tracks the Hurricane well west of the central Baja Peninsula by this time. Needless to say I don't put a lot of faith in either models forecasts yet since the Hurricane hasn't even formed. So for now this will be something to watch to see if it plays a role in our weather next week...right now early forecasts say no as far as rainfall is concerned.

This is the time of the year that the eastern Pacific starts getting active with tropical storms. Given this is an El Nino year we may see above normal activity in this region. Historically our late summer and fall months can be very wet during El Nino years with a good deal of our local rainfall coming from these Pacific Hurricanes and Tropical Storms that move inland over Mexico and dissipate, sending their remnant moisture northeastward into New Mexico. Will this be one of those wet late summers and falls?

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.