Update On Our Long Duration Major Winter Storm!
Snow Level Down To 5,500'.
Just West Of Runyan Ranches Fruit Stand.
In Southwestern Chaves County - US Hwy 82.
GFS 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Tuesday, March 19, 2024.
Update On Our Long Duration Major Winter Storm.
Taking a look at last night's computer forecast models didn't offer much clarity as to the exact details concerning our cut off mid-upper level low to our northwest, and how it will behave over the next five days. Confusion remains the theme in model land.
However, that being said it looks like New Mexico and nearby areas are in for an early spring treat from a major winter storm. As of midnight last night the center of the cut off low was located over Las Vegas, Nevada. It will sink southward today and by sunrise Friday morning it is forecast to be centered somewhere east of San Diego, California and west of Yuma, Arizona. It is then forecast to basically sit in that general area or perhaps even meander around that area from Friday into Sunday. After that...I'm not sure but indications are that the storm won't weaken and finally clear the area until around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
That's awesome if you love heavy mountain snows and moderate to heavy lowland and valley rains in March, in New Mexico. Throw in a few scattered thunderstorms at times for good measure too. Yes thundersnow will be possible in a few mountain and western and northern valley locations too. Because that's the general idea today into the first of next week.
Exactly how much rain and snow will fall over the state over the next five days or so is still up in the air. Right now it looks like widespread lowland and valley locations will see anywhere from .50" to 1.50" of rainfall in most locations of the state when it's all said and done by the middle of next week. A few spots may even see more than this possibly in the 2.00" to 3.00" range.
Snow level will drop to valley floors in western, northern, parts of central New Mexico, and northeastern New Mexico at times today through the weekend. This will be especially true Sunday into Monday behind the second cold front.
Otherwise for the Sacramento Mountains tonight into the weekend snow levels generally look to fluctuate around the 7,000' to 8,000' level. Lowering at night and rising during the daylight hours.
Some of the higher elevations of the western and northern mountains of the state may end up with one to three feet of new snow out this storm. Maybe a little more in a few spots.
How much snow is highly uncertain yet but it's possible that the higher elevations of the Sac's above 8,000' may see upwards to a foot of snow out of this storm by the time it's all said and done early next week. It's also possible that even more than this may fall above 9,000' or so.
As a strong cold front plows southwestward and backdoors through the state today into tonight a colder air mass will settle in over the state on Friday into Friday night. A second cold front will arrive Sunday and Sunday night. Moist low-level easterly upslope flow behind these two cold fronts will add to the mix to help precipitation across the state and local area Friday into the first of next week.
Meanwhile our nearly stationary very slow moving cut off mid-upper level low to our west will kick out numerous disturbances to add lift and destabilization to the atmosphere which will also help keep the precipitation machine cranking.
Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for parts of the western and northern areas of the state today through Saturday.
Near blizzard conditions are forecast for the Continental Divide and Tijeras Canyon areas.
A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque area from 9 PM MDT tonight through midnight Friday night. East canyon winds will scream into the valley from the mountain passes and canyons and become sustained at 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Localized higher gusts are possible. Wind Advisories are also in effect for the northern Tularosa Valley.
For the southeastern plains the cold front arrives this evening bring a stretch of cooler than normal temps Friday into the first of next week. Scattered rain showers are forecast tonight through the first of next week. There will be off and on periods of light to moderate rain with a few areas possible getting heavy rain. A few scattered thunderstorms will also be possible at times. The overall weather theme from Friday through the first of next week is cloudy, cool, and wet. A much welcome reprieve from the above normal temps, high winds, and dust storms so far this year that we've been experiencing.
Our forecasts, watches and warnings will likely change in the coming days as the models hone in on what our pesky unpredictable winter storm finally decides what it wants to do.
Please keep abreast of all of our local conditions, forecasts, advisories, watches, warnings and much more via my weather web page. More on all of this later.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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