Widespread Significant Damaging High Wind/Blowing Dust Event Sunday.
East Of Cloudcroft, NM.
GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid At 6 AM MDT Sunday.
Valid At 6 AM MDT Monday.
Very Strong Jet Stream Aloft On Sunday.
GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Jet Stream Winds Forecast.
GFS 700 MB (10,000' MSL) jet Stream Wind Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday.
NWS NDFD Storm Total Precipitation Forecast
Valid At 6 AM MDT Monday.
Widespread Significant Damaging High Wind/Blowing Dust Event Sunday.
A rapidly deepening and intense mid-upper level trough of low pressure centered southwest of Portland, Oregon at sunrise this morning will dive southeastward towards New Mexico today into Sunday. This large trough of low pressure will then swing eastward across the state on Sunday and Monday.
Very strong jet stream winds aloft associated with this approaching winter storm will cross over the area tomorrow. Last night's midnight MDT run of the U.S. GFS forecast model had a jet stream wind speed max of 180 knots/207 mph approaching southwestern and southern New Mexico Sunday morning at 250 millibars or 34,000' Mean Sea Level (MSL). The ECMWF model came in a little stronger with 186 knots/214 mph.
Winds at the 500 millibar or 18,000' Mean Sea Level (MSL) were forecast by this model to be screaming along at 108 knots/124 mph. And at the 700 millibar or 10,000' Mean Sea Level (MSL) 72 knots/83 mph.
High clouds over the region this morning should be shunted off to the northeast and east of us by Sunday. This will allow the very strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface on Sunday aided by afternoon heating.
A rapidly deepening surface low will develop over southeastern Colorado on Sunday. A surface pressure reading of 978 millibars or 28.88 inches of mercury is forecast by the GFS model with this low. This along with a tight surface pressure gradient over the area will aid in the development of high winds at the surface as a strong Pacific cold front sweeps eastward across the state.
Thus the stage will be set for a widespread significant damaging high-wind event across the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern plains, the central and south-central mountains, and the southern deserts and lowlands of the state on Sunday.
Southwesterly and westerly winds will start picking up across the area today, increase somewhat tonight, and howl on Sunday. Most areas in the Wind Advisory will see sustained winds at 25 to 35 mph with gusts around 55 mph. Most areas in the High Wind Warnings will see sustained winds at 40 to 50 mph with gusts in the 60 to 75 mph range.
A few locations may even see stronger gusts with some of these in the 75 to 85 mph range. This includes the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains, the Capitan Mountains, and the Guadalupe Mountains. A few of these locations such as the Guadalupe Pass area may even see gusts in excess of 85 mph.
Widespread blowing dust is expected to develop on Sunday in the warning and advisory areas of eastern and southern New Mexico and nearby West Texas. Visibilities will drop down to less than 3 miles in many of these areas.
The more dust-prone locations such as freshly plowed or cultivated farmlands, open or exposed fields and lots, and highway construction sites will see frequent drops in the visibility down to zero with little to no warning at times.
Blinding duststorms are common in the area during these high wind events and we have a long history of vehicle accidents with fatalities and injuries in these duststorms. Travel will become difficult and dangerous in these areas, if not impossible at times. Local road closures are possible. High-profile vehicles may be blown over or off of north-south-orientated roads and highways.
Telephone poles, utility poles, power lines, and utility cables may be blown down. Roof damage to homes, barns, and sheds may occur. Tree branches and some trees may be blown down. Local power outages are possible. Damage to road signs and billboards may occur. Some west-facing windows could be blown out. Agriculture irrigation equipment such as side row and pivot sprinkler systems may be damaged or blown away if not anchored down.
Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions will exist across parts of the southeastern plains and West Texas on Sunday. Any wildfire or forest fire that potentially could develop will have the ability to rapidly spread and grow in the high winds.
Winter Weather Over The State.
High Wind Warnings, High Wind Watches, and Wind Advisories are already flying for the above-mentioned areas of the state for Sunday.
A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the Tuscas Mountains of northern New Mexico including the Chama area on Sunday. New snowfall is forecast to be 3" to 8" with 6" to 13" above 9,000'.
Lowland rain showers are forecast for the lowlands and valleys of western and northern New Mexico Sunday into Monday. Some locations may see anywhere from a tenth of an inch of rainfall up to around three-quarters of an inch.
Across the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains, snow showers are forecast to develop Sunday and Monday. Elevations above 8,000' may see 1" to 3" of snow out of this storm but the main weather story will be the high winds and blowing dust in the area.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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