Rain On The Plains - Snow In The Mountains?

Rain On The Plains - Snow In The Mountains? - And Severe T-Storms?

- May 02, 2025

April 6, 2025.

Sunset Peak On The Left.

Capitan Peak On The Right.

Looking Southwest From Northeast Of Roswell On St Hwy 246.

Here Comes The Rain & Snow.

A southward-moving cold front has moved through most of New Mexico this morning with a cooler airmass in its wake. Low clouds have overspread the eastern one-half of the state in the moist low-level upslope flow behind the cold front.

Today's high temps behind the front will be some 10 to 20 degrees cooler than those of yesterday. High temperatures across the state will be some 5 to 15 degrees below normal early next week.

A complicated upper air pattern is developing with a strong and unseasonably cold closed mid-upper level low forecast by the European model to dive out of the Pacific Northwest into southern California by Sunday morning. It is then forecast to slowly wobble around Arizona Sunday into next Monday night. Then centered over the Four Corners area by early Tuesday morning. The low finally opens up and dissipates over New Mexico by next Wednesday. Other models have different forecast tracks and speeds for the evolution of this closed low.

With the slow movement of a strong mid-upper level closed low to our west this weekend into the middle of next week, our forecasts will have a lot of uncertainty in them. Which is not at all unusual with this type of pattern. So expect to see possible changes in your local forecasts this weekend into the middle of next week.

Current model forecasts favor the northern New Mexico mountains, the northeastern plains, the eastern plains, and perhaps parts of the southeastern plains for moderate to heavy rainfall. As of this Friday morning, these areas (except for the southeastern plains) may end up with storm total rainfall amounts of 1" to 3" by next Wednesday.

It is not out of the question that some of these areas may end up getting more rainfall than currently forecast by the models. Localized heavy rainfall, especially from thunderstorms, will pose a flash flood threat over the state's recent burn scars. Heavy rain could also fall across the eastern sections of the state early next week, if severe thunderstorms (supercell thunderstorms part 1 and part 2) develop along the dryline.

Who ends up getting the most rain and or snow out of this storm and when will be highly dependent upon the track and speed of the upper-level storm to our west. A shift further to the south would mean more rain/snow for the western, southern, and southeastern sections of the state. A faster shift further to the north of the current forecast track could mean more rain/snow for the northern and eastern sections of the state, and less for the southern half of the state.

As of today (Friday morning), it appears that the most widespread and heaviest rains will fall Sunday into Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the northern and eastern areas of the state on Sunday, and perhaps again early next week across the eastern one-half of the state.

Believe it or not, but snow showers are possible across the western and northern mountains of the state Monday into Wednesday. Some model forecasts even call for heavy snowfall over the northern mountains. Current snow levels are forecast to be around 7,000' to 8,000' and above. This may change.

Snow showers are also possible Monday into Wednesday across the higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains, including the Sunspot, Cloudcroft, and Ski Apache areas...generally above 8,000'. Maybe even the Mayhill, Sacramento/Weed, High Rolls/Mountain Park, and Ruidoso areas, on Monday night. It's too early to know if there will be any accumulations yet.

I know it's the first of May, but believe it or not, snow has been observed in southeastern New Mexico before in May.

GOES-19 GeoColor Satellite Image.

At 8:51 AM MDT, Friday Morning.

Surface Map Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Friday, May 2, 2025.

ECMWF 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecast.

Valid From Midnight Last Night Through Midnight Next Wednesday.

ECMWF 7-Day Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.