Scattered T-Storms Today Into Next Week.
T-Storm At Sunset.
Carlsbad, New Mexico.
Blog Updated At 4:18 PM MDT, Wednesday, May 28, 2025.
Scattered T-Storms Today Into Next Week - Some Severe!
A backdoor cold front will slide southward into northeastern New Mexico this afternoon and then continue working its way southward and westward tonight into Thursday. Along with cooler temps behind this front, moist low-level easterly upslope flow will increase across the state from the mountains eastward.
A cutoff upper-level low will develop and park itself west of the Baja Peninsula Thursday into Sunday. By next Monday, the models lift this low northeastward to the Four Corners Region. A second upper-level low may replace the first low later next week.
A Tropical Disturbance located west of the central Mexican Pacific coast may develop into a Tropical Storm by this weekend. There is the possibility that the cutoff upper-level low over Baja will pick up some of its tropical moisture and import it into the region early next week. If this happens, then better chances for showers and t-storms will occur in western New Mexico. More on this later.
Today into the weekend, the best chances for scattered t-storms will occur along and east of the central mountain chain of the state, eastward out onto the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern plains.
West of the central mountain chain, T-storm coverage will be isolated to widely scattered and of the drier version, producing dry lightning strikes and erratic gusty winds. The southward and westward advancing cold front will increase the chances for t-storms on Thursday.
A few of these t-storms may be severe across the plains today, Thursday, and Friday. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding will be possible with these storms.
How strong does the potential tropical storm in the eastern Pacific become, and how far inland will its remnant moisture get pulled northeastward into the Desert Southwest? A lot of unknowns at this point, but the possibility of wetter and cooler weather for the state and region is certainly in the cards next week.
Photo Courtesy Of Diane Malone.
Penny-sized Hail At Our Home Tuesday Evening.
May 26, 2025.
Floyd, New Mexico Tornado.
633 NOUS45 KABQ 281955 PNSABQ NMZ201>241-290800- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque, NM 155 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025 ...Preliminary NWS Damage Survey for May 25, 2025 Tornado Event... .Overview... A thunderstorm that moved into Roosevelt County after 430 PM MDT became tornadic around 520PM southwest of the town of Floyd New Mexico. The storm tracked northeast with the tornado becoming stronger after crossing NM road 267 and snapping 10 to 15 power poles. Around 535PM MDT the tornado began to dissipate as it reached a local diary which sustained minimal damage. ..Roosevelt County NM... Rating: EF1 Estimated Peak Wind: 90 mph Path Length /statute/: 5.16 miles Path Width /maximum/: 300 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 05/25/2025 Start Time: 05:20 PM MDT Start Location: 3 SW Floyd / Roosevelt County / NM Start Lat/Lon: 34.1852 / -103.5902 End Date: 05/25/2025 End Time: 05:37 PM MDT End Location: 2 ENE Floyd / Roosevelt County / NM End Lat/Lon: 34.2304 / -103.5188 Survey Summary: Damage survey found tree damage at the start of the tornado about 3 miles SW of Floyd and then tracked NE over open fields crossing road NM-267 about 1.5 miles SE of Floyd. The tornado snapped 10 to 15 power poles near the bases of the poles as it continued to move NE. Another 20 power poles were snapped on Roosevelt Road 3. This stretch of the tornado track includes its peak intensity and width with low end EF-1 damage (winds speeds near 90 mph). The tornado weakened as it tracked NE towards Roosevelt Road 2 and a dairy. There was a mangled farm sprinkler system to the SW of the dairy and minor damage to fences and metal roofing at the dairy. Timing of the tornado was determined by matching damage indicator points with observer comments, web based camera imagery and radar data. The tornado width was based mostly on damage to power poles at two different locations. && EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0.....65 to 85 mph EF1.....86 to 110 mph EF2.....111 to 135 mph EF3.....136 to 165 mph EF4.....166 to 200 mph EF5.....>200 mph NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data. OVERPECK $$
Valid At 6 PM MDT Thursday.
New Mexico 72-Hour CoCoRaHS Rainfall Totals.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 537 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 - Humid with storm chances each afternoon and evening this week, Sunday and Monday through next Wednesday, with highest chances of storms over the Davis Mountains this week and early next week. - Cooler than average temperatures this week give way to near average and then warmer than average temperatures next week. - Easterly winds shift to southerly and then southwesterly by next week as quasi-stationary front dissipates and lee troughing develops over SE NM into TX Panhandle and a thermal low over high elevations and associated trough retrogrades west into northern Mexico. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 529 AM MDT Wed May 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 519 AM MDT Wed May 28 2025 - Daily rounds of showers and storms will favor eastern New Mexico through Friday, with coverage expanding to the whole area this weekend. A few storms in the eastern plains may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts today and Thursday. - A few dry storms with little to no rainfall and erratic downburst winds will develop each afternoon through Friday over the Continental Divide and Rio Grande Valley. These storms have the potential to start new fires. - There is a low risk of flash flooding over recent burn scars and in eastern New Mexico each afternoon through the weekend. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 549 AM MDT Wed May 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low storm chances east of the Rio Grande through Thursday with potential for gusty winds and blowing dust. - Better chances for rain across the whole area this weekend. - Seasonal temperatures into next week. &&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
Fantastic information. Much appreciated
ReplyDelete