Mild & Tranquil Weather To Continue.
Northern Hemisphere Brutal Cold & Heavy Snow.
Brutal cold and heavy snow continues to grip much of Russia eastward into Siberia this winter. A couple of weeks ago temperatures as low as -63F to -73F were reported in northern Siberia. This winter is turning out to be one of the coldest experienced in Russia since 1938. For many in the Northern Hemisphere, its been another brutal winter, and the end is not yet in sight.
Much of the U.S. east of the Rockies will get a taste of some of these very cold temps over the next couple of weeks. Successive waves of very cold air will enter the northern plains, and eventually spread south and east from this week into the first of February. As the first wave of very cold air crosses over the unfrozen Great Lakes, it will scoop up lots of moisture, and by mid-week, some locations near the Great Lakes will be measuring their snowfall by the foot instead of inches.
Southeaster New Mexico Quiet For Now.
Without exception this has been a beautiful reprieve from the cold, wet, and sometimes snowy weather we have experienced here in southeastern New Mexico since before Christmas. I love the cold and snow but I'm also enjoying our balmy early spring-like break too. Good weather to get outside and go golfing, walking, etc.
A brief shot of cooler air will work its way southward behind an approaching cold front late tonight. This front will knock our highs back down into the 50's on Monday, but we will quickly warm back up Tuesday into Thursday. In fact our current NWS forecasts for Roswell, Artesia, Carlsbad, and Hobbs for highs on Wednesday to be around 70, and highs on Thursday to be in the low-mid 70's.
Warm Wednesday & Thursday.
Valid At 11 AM MST Thursday January 24, 2013.
Valid At 2 PM MST Thursday January 24, 2013.
All-Time January Record High Temps-
Roswell 88 1-31-1893
Artesia 85 1-25-1970
Carlsbad 88 1-30-1911
Hobbs 83 1-11-1953
Tatum 82 1-21-1950
Although we are going to experience some pretty warm temps by the middle of this week, they will not be anywhere close to the all-time record high temps that have been recorded in the month of January.
Next Storm?
Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 27, 2013.
A stout mid-upper level ridge of high pressure located over the Western U.S. and northward into southern Alaska, is responsible for keeping the storm track, and the bitterly cold arctic air away from New Mexico. Until this ridge either breaks down, or shifts further west, we will continue to experience warm and dry weather.
The GEFS Esemble model is forecasting this ridge to shift further to the west around the 27th of this month, which should allow the Polar Jet to become active once again, driving storms into the Desert Southwest. Just how much arctic or polar air will accompany these storms as they enter the local area in the coming weeks is questionable at this time.
Valid At 5 PM MST Tuesday January 29, 2013.
Valid At 5 PM MST Tuesday January 29, 2013.
Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday January 31, 2013.
Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday January 31, 2013.
Long-range models continue to forecast rather quiet and tranquil weather for the area for the next week to ten days. By then the mid-upper level ridge located over the Western U.S. is forecast to break down and allow the storm track to become active once again.
The European model is forecasting a closed low to drop into northern Arizona by around the 29th, while this mornings run of the GFS model is forecasting a closed low over the central plains by the 29th. So until then, nothing significant weather-wise appears to be in the offing to affect our weather.
Albuquerque, NM.
Roswell, NM.
Artesia, NM.
Carlsbad, NM.
Hobbs, NM.
Ruidoso, NM.
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