Powerful Upper-Level Storm Over Northern Mexico.
Low-level upslope southeasterly flow originating from the Gulf of Mexico has arrived in southeastern New Mexico as evidenced by the deck of stratocumuls clouds between 3,000 - 5,000' above the ground. Mid-level moisture continues to get wrapped into the storm from the south as evidenced by the Water Vapor Satellite image above.
06Z/11 PM MST NAM 500 MB Analysis Last Night.
A powerful cutoff mid-upper level low was centered over northern Coahuila in northern Mexico early this morning. This potent winter storm is forecast to slowly lift northeast today into Thursday morning. If it behaves as forecast. The storm has slowed down and drifted further south than the models had originally forecast, thus the delay of the arrival of the precipitation in our neck of the woods.
By 11 AM Today.
By 5 PM MST This Afternoon.
BY 11 PM Tonight.
By 5 AM MST Thursday.
By 5 AM MST Thursday.
Areas of rain, a few thunderstorms, and higher elevations snows will continue to work their way northward into the area today into tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory continues in effect until around midnight tonight for the Guadalupe mountains where 1" - 3" of snow is expected. A Winter Storm Warning continues in effect for the Big Bend area of west Texas until around midnight tonight for heavy wet snow accumulations of 2" - 6", and 6" - 8" across the higher elevations of the mountains.
Our local National Weather Service forecasts for Artesia, Carlsbad, and Hobbs are generally calling for a 80% to 100% chance of rain today with highs near 50. Rainfall totals of a quarter to a half inch of rain are expected. Tonight we are looking at a mix of rain and snow with little accumulations. Roswell has less of a chance for rain today, but perhaps a better chance at seeing some snow tonight with possibly up to an inch accumulations in some parts of Chaves County.
So the only way we are going have any chance of seeing accumulatiing snowfall here in southeastern New Mexico is if the storm to our south drifts more to the north today into tomorrow than to the northeast. This would allow the colder air aloft associated with the storm to move directly overhead and cool the atmospheric column, thus changing the precipitation type from rain to snow.
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