Here Comes The Rain...Snow?


Powerful Upper-Level Storm Over Northern Mexico.


Low-level upslope southeasterly flow originating from the Gulf of Mexico has arrived in southeastern New Mexico as evidenced by the deck of stratocumuls clouds between 3,000 - 5,000' above the ground. Mid-level moisture continues to get wrapped into the storm from the south as evidenced by the Water Vapor Satellite image above. 


06Z/11 PM MST NAM 500 MB Analysis Last Night.

A powerful cutoff mid-upper level low was centered over northern Coahuila in northern Mexico early this morning. This potent winter storm is forecast to slowly lift northeast today into Thursday morning. If it behaves as forecast. The storm has slowed down and drifted further south than the models had originally forecast, thus the delay of the arrival of the precipitation in our neck of the woods.

By 11 AM Today.

By 5 PM MST This Afternoon.

BY 11 PM Tonight.

By 5 AM MST Thursday.


By 5 AM MST Thursday.

Areas of rain, a few thunderstorms, and higher elevations snows will continue to work their way northward into the area today into tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory continues in effect until around midnight tonight for the Guadalupe mountains where 1" - 3" of snow is expected. A Winter Storm Warning continues in effect for the Big Bend area of west Texas until around midnight tonight for heavy wet snow accumulations of 2" - 6", and 6" - 8" across the higher elevations of the mountains.

Our local National Weather Service forecasts for Artesia, Carlsbad, and Hobbs are generally calling for a 80% to 100% chance of rain today with highs near 50. Rainfall totals of a quarter to a half inch of rain are expected. Tonight we are looking at a mix of rain and snow with little accumulations. Roswell has less of a chance for rain today, but perhaps a better chance at seeing some snow tonight with possibly up to an inch accumulations in some parts of Chaves County.

So the only way we are going have any chance of seeing accumulatiing snowfall here in southeastern New Mexico is if the storm to our south drifts more to the north today into tomorrow than to the northeast. This would allow the colder air aloft associated with the storm to move directly overhead and cool the atmospheric column, thus changing the precipitation type from rain to snow.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

 My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.

Comments

My Current Davis Vantage Pro Plus Weather

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussions

NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
Current Watches In Effect

Storm Prediction Center

Storm Prediction Center
Severe Weather Outlooks/Watches - Click On The Map To Open It.

NWS Watch/Warning/Hazards Map

NWS Watch/Warning/Hazards Map
Click On The Map To Go To The Live Link.

NWS 12-Hour Surface Map Forecast

NWS 12-Hour Surface Map Forecast
Click On The Map To Open It Up.

NWS Midland Web Page

NWS Midland Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

NWS Midland Radar

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

Eddy County Watches & Warnings

Lea County Watches & Warnings

Culberson County - Guadalupe Mtn's Watches & Warnings

NWS Albuquerque Web Page

NWS Albuquerque Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

Cannon AFB Radar

NWS Albuquerque Radar

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecasts.

Chaves County Watches & Warnings

Lincoln County Watches & Warnings

NWS El Paso Web Page

NWS El Paso Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

Holloman AFB Radar

NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa Radar

NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa Regional Forecasts.

Otero County Watches & Warnings

NWS Lubbock Web Page

NWS Lubbock Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

NWS Lubbock Radar

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecasts.

Regional Radar

Regional Radar
Click On The Map To Enlarge It

CoCoRaHS Daily Rainfall Map

Cloudcroft Live Webcam