Today's Into Wednesday.
BY 5 PM MST Today.
BY 5 AM Wednesday.
By 11 AM MST Wednesday.
For the past several days the models had been forecasting a strong mid-upper level closed low, or even a cutoff low to form over northern Mexico by tonight, and then drift eastward across west Texas into Thursday morning. Now, the latest model forecasts have backed off on this scenario, and are forecasting a cold trough of low pressure to move overhead today and out of the area by tomorrow.
This storm is also going to be moisture starved, and since its tracking overhead instead of south of us, the potential of it producing any significant snowfall over the area has apparently dimisihed. However, we may see some snow flurries, or up to less than an inch of snow this afternoon.
Cold weather will continue its grip on the southeastern plains into tomorrow before we begin a warm-up the end of the week into the weekend. Our high temps are forecast to struggle to reach the freezing mark today, with our lows tonight dipping down into the low teens, maybe even a few single digits in the normally colder spots. Lows across the Sacramento mountains tonight will drop down to as low as 6F, if not colder in some of the higher sheltered mountain valley's.
Next Weeks Polar Outbreak?
Valid At 5 PM MST Monday January 21, 2013.
Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 850 MB Temp Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Monday January 21, 2013.
Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF Surface Temp Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Monday January 21, 2013.
So, will eastern and southeastern New Mexico get invaded early next week by a Polar airmass? This remains a tough question to answer this morning. The European model (maps above) is forecasting temps of -20F to -30F by around sunrise Monday morning across Montana and the Dakotas. The question is how far south, and west will this brutal airmass reach, and will it make it this far south?
Historically we can, and often do see these invasions from the north here in southeastern New Mexico, especially during January and February. So its going to become a matter of just how strong the mid-upper level ridge of high pressure that is forecast to develop along the West Coast is going to be, and how far west and north it builds. If it builds further west, then more of this bitterly cold airmass will move into the area, if it builds further to the east, then the coldest air will end up being east of us. More on this later this week.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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