00Z/5 PM MST NAM Forecast High Temps.
GFS Forecast Temp Anomalies Today.
Balmy temps for late January are forecast to continue today into the weekend. Our National Weather Service forecast high temps today for Artesia, Carlsbad, Hobbs, and Roswell are expected to be in the low-mid 70's.
00Z/5 PM MST NAM Forecast High Temps.
GFS Forecast Temp Anomalies Thursday.
Thursday is forecast to be even warmer with our afternoon highs climbing up into the mid 70's in the Roswell area, the upper 70's for the Hobbs area, to the low 80's in the Artesia and Carlsbad areas. A few of us may even tie or break some of our daily record high temps.
Daily Record High Temps For January 24th-
Roswell 80 1999
Artesia 79 1910
Carlsbad 86 1999
Carlsbad Arpt 84 1970
Hobbs 82 1970
Tatum 80 1970
00Z/5 PM MST GFS 500 MB Analysis.
Two upper-level storms will affect our weather Saturday and early next week. The first storm (circled in red on the Water Vapor Satellite image above) will be fairly weak, and was located southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Penisula early this morning. The second storm is much stronger and was located just south of the Aleutian Island Chain.
GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Saturday.
This first storm will weaken with time as it advances toward the state. There may be just enough moisture and lift associated with it to produce a few isolated rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two across the area Saturday and Saturday evening.
GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Monday.
ECMWF 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Monday.
GFS Forecast Temp Anomalies Monday.
GFS Forecast Temp Anomalies Tuesday.
Our second storm will take aim on the Four Corners Region by Monday. Just how far south it digs will determine whether or not we see any moisture out of it. Colder air will spread southward down the east side of the Rockies behind the storm next week.
Our recent run of warm temps will be coming to an end early next week. A trend towards colder and stormier weather appears in the making. There is some bitterly cold air locked up in western and northern Canada, and if the Polar Vortex shifts further to the west than what the current model trends are forecasting, then some of that very cold air will get dislodged and sent south into the area. Lots of unknowns at this point though for next weeks weather.
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