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One Storm Departs - Another On The Way.



For the past couple of days now temperatures in inland Greenland have been hovering around -80F to -90F. That's cold by any standard! 

Remember to enlarge the maps and graphs...just click on them.


That dark swirl located over northern California is our next winter storm.


last Nights 06Z11 PM MST NAM 500 MB Analysis.

As one winter storm departs New Mexico, a second is poised to drop south into the area Wednesday into Friday. A small upper level disturbance was located over southern Oregon and northern California around midnight last night. By sunrise this morning it had moved into northern California. This disturbance will ride the jet stream south today into Wednesday.

Last Nights 06Z/11 PM MST NAM 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday January 2, 2013.

Last nights NAM model drops this disturbance south and into northwestern Mexico by around sunset Wednesday. It briefly closes the system off as a small closed upper-level low.  

 Last Nights 06Z/5 PM MST NAM Max Snow Depth Forecast.
Valid At 8 PM MST Thursday January 3, 2013.

Interestingly enough this model breaks out a pretty good area of snow across the Texas Big Bend Country. 


 Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday January 3, 2013.

The European model is a little slower and drops the disturbance into southern Arizona by sunset Thursday. It too briefly closes the system off in the form of a closed upper-level low. 

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid At 11 AM MST Friday January 4, 2013.

Today's ECMWF Temp Anomaly Forecast.

Wednesday's ECMWF Temp Anomaly Forecast.

Thursday's ECMWF Temp Anomaly Forecast.

Friday's ECMWF Temp Anomaly Forecast.

 According to the European model run the Texas Big Bend area, like the NAM's forecast, would be favored for the heaviest snowfall from this next storm. But the European model produces more snow across southeastern New Mexico, as well as across parts of southern New Mexico..


Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 11 PM MST Wednesday January 2, 2013.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST GFS Max Snow Depth Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Friday January 4, 2013.

Honestly I'm not sure what the GFS model is thinking with its snowfall forecast. This does not make any sense whatsoever. As you might have guessed the models are not exactly clear as to just how much snow this next storm is going to produce across southeastern New Mexico. Maybe this mornings runs will help clear up the picture some.

 Regardless, its going to be a cold week not only for southeastern New Mexico, but the rest of the state as well. Winter has arrived.

Cold Week Ahead.

 ECMWF Albuquerque, NM.

ECMWF Ruidoso, NM.

 ECMWF Alamogordo, NM.

ECMWF Las Cruces, NM.

ECMWF Roswell, NM.

ECMWF Artesia, NM.

ECMWF Carlsbad, NM.

ECMWF Hobbs, NM.

ECMWG Guadalupe Pass, TX.

ECMWF El Paso, TX.

ECMWF Fort Stockton, TX.

(A note on the timeline on the graphs above)-
12/01= 12Z/5 AM MST on Jan 1st.
00/02= 00Z/5 PM MST on Jan 1st. 
12/02= 12Z/5 AM MST on Jan 2nd.
00/03= 00Z/5 PM MST on Jan 2nd.
The blue plus sign is the initiation time of the models forecast. The blue numbers at the bottom of the graphs (12, 24, 36, 48, 72,etc) are the forecast hours from the initiation time. So these graphs are forecasting high and low temperatures, and total liquid precipitation through 240 hours, or the next 10 days.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM 24-Hour Temp Graph

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