Once again we are going to see our afternoon high temps climb up into the mid-upper 70's today. Its even possible that a few spots could even reach 80-degrees.
Last Nights 06Z/11 PM MST GFS 500 MB Analysis.
GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Today.
GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Friday.
GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Saturday.
A mid-upper level trough of low pressure was located west of California late last night. This system is forecast to form a closed low by sunset today. Then this storm will slowly open back up as a trough of low pressure as it moves slowly eastward and into New Mexico by Saturday.
GFS 60-Hour Total Rainfall Forecast By 5 PM MST Sunday.
Our chances of seeing some rainfall will be on the increase Friday night into Saturday evening here in southeastern New Mexico. Current National Weather Service forecasts give us a 20% - 30% chance of getting wet. A few isolated thunderstorms will also be possible.
This next storm will be a fairly warm system (for January anyway) as it moves across the state. Therefore snow levels are going to be high, roughly around 8,500' MSL or above across western and northern New Mexico, and 9,000' to 10,000' MSL across southern New Mexico.
GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Monday.
Last nights run of the GFS model (map above) is forecasting a second storm to affect the state by Monday. The European (ECMWF) model is much slower and further north with this next storm than the GFS.
GFS Forecast Temps At 5 PM MST Monday.
GFS Forecast Temp Anomalies At 5 PM MST Monday.
GFS Forecast Temps At 5 PM MST Tuesday.
GFS Forecast Temp Anomalies At 5 PM MST Tuesday.
GFS Forecast Temps At 5 PM MST Wednesday.
GFS Forecast Temp Anomalies At 5 PM MST Wednesday.
Colder air will overspread the state behind this next storm by the middle of next week. Differences in the models make it a little uncertain on the exact timing of the arrival of the colder air. Currents trends would bring it into the local area by Tuesday. So winter is most definetly not over with yet. In fact, some of the long-range forecast indicators still hint at the possibility of the coldest temps of the winter coming between the end of the month and the middle of February.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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