Last Nights 06Z/11 PM MST NAM 500 MB Analysis.
By 2 PM MST This Afternoon.
Valid At 8 AM MST This Morning.
High winds are going to rake the area once again starting this morning. A deep and cold upper-level trough of low pressure will move into New Mexico today. Very strong winds aloft (700 millibar or 10,000' mean sea level winds are forecast to be around 60 - 80 knots or 69 -92 mph this morning) will mix down to the surface and combine with an tightening surface pressure gradient to make for a very windy day.
Southwesterly to westerly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 35 - 45 mph with gusts near 60 - 65 mph across most of the southeastern plains.
These winds are forecast to howl at sustained speeds of around 35 - 50 mph with gusts near 75 mph in the Guadalupe mountains. Across the Sacramento mountains these winds are forecast to be nearly as strong with sustained speeds of around 35 - 45 mph with gusts near 70 mph.
With wind gusts of 60 - 75 mph being forecast for the local area there will be the possibility of some damages from these winds. Small trees and tree limbs may be blown down as well as power lines and poles and other suspended cables. Small sheds and outbuildings may be blown over or damaged, and barns, homes, and business may suffer some window and roof damages. Irrigation sprinkler systems may be damaged as well as small fences. Trash cans, dumpsters, and other objects may be blown away or into local roadways.
Areas of blowing dust may also develop. This will be highly dependent upon who got rain and who didn't. The most likely areas to see severe drops in the visibility due to the blowing dust will be those locations near freshly plowed or exposed farmlands, fields, lots, and construction sites.
Today's Forecast Temp Anomaly At 11 AM MST.
Saturday's Temp Anomaly At 5 PM MST.
Sunday's Temp Anomaly.
Monday's Temp Anomaly.
Tuesday's Temp Anomaly.
Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Tuesday January 15, 2013.
Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday January 16, 2013.
A colder air mass will overspread the area this weekend. In fact this colder air will stick around for much of next week. We may have another winter storm waiting in the wings for next week. The European model (ECMWF) has been insistent upon bringing another strong cutoff or closed upper-level low into northern Mexico by around next Tuesday. Since a colder air mass will be in place by the time this storm arrives there will be some question as to just how much moisture the storm will have to work with. If this forecast pans out then we have a chance of seeing more snow next week.
Guadalupe Pass, TX.
El Paso, TX.
Please use these graphs as a general guide. There are a lot of changes and uncertainety going on with the general weather pattern over North America, therefore don't be too surprised to see changes in our local forecasts over the next week. Colder weather is coming so get ready.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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