Windy Today - Severe T-Storms Fri.
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Friday - Saturday.
5-Day Precipitation Forecast.
(Wed - Sun).
RUC 500 MB Analysis At 3 AM MDT This Morning.
I said the other day that our weather outlook for the end of this week was complicated, it still is. A large, cold and powerful mid-upper level storm was parked over Nevada early this morning. This massive storm is forecast to split into two centers. The first upper level low is forecast to move eastward and out onto the Plains states by tomorrow. The second upper level low is forecast by the models, to slowly crawl eastward to the Four-Corners Region by tomorrow and Saturday.
At the surface, a strong fall Pacific cold front will move into northwestern New Mexico later today. This front will then move slowly eastward and into SE NM Friday evening. It will then stall across W TX on Saturday. The dryline will sharpen up across E/SE NM this afternoon and into tomorrow.
As colder air filters into northwestern New Mexico later today behind the inbound cold front, snow levels are forecast to drop down from 10,000' MSL this morning, to around 7,000' MSL Friday morning.
A warm and windy day is on tap for SE NM today. Southerly winds will increase later this morning at around 20-25G30-40 mph. Even windier conditions are forecast for the northern Sacramento Mtn's where a Wind Advisory will be in effect today. Southwesterly winds at around 25-40G55 mph are forecast after noontime.
A few isolated to widely scattered t-storms may pop up across parts of SE NM & W TX this afternoon and evening. The best chances for rain will generally be east of the Pecos River. Elevated Fire Weather Concerns are forecast today for SE NM as strong southern winds and low relative humidity values return.
Things become a little more interesting tomorrow across the area. The dryline will sharpen up and will be draped across SE NM. A strong Pacific cold front will be approaching from the west. Increasing deep layered wind shear, steepening mid-level lapse rates, along with surface based cape values exceeding 1,000 j/kg, and a strengthening low-level jet, will all combine to potentially produce severe t-storms across the area.
As of early this morning, the best chances for severe weather on Friday appear to be roughly from the Pecos Valley eastward. The models haven't quite settled down with the exact details concerning this just yet.
Scattered supercell thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the dryline tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Some of these could last into Saturday morning. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, deadly cloud to ground lighting, and locally heavy rainfall that may produce localized flash flooding will all be possible.
There remains the possibility that Spotter Activation may be requested across parts of SE NM and W TX on Friday, and across W TX on Saturday. Skywarn spotters in the Midland, TX National Weather Service County Warning Area are requested to be on standby tomorrow and Saturday, and be prepared to activate should conditions warrant.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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