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Temps 10-15 Degrees Above Normal Into Monday.

RUC 500 Analysis.
(3 AM MDT Sat Oct 15, 2011.)

Early this morning, we find that the center of the upper level ridge of high pressure is located over Arizona. The jet stream is increasingly becoming more active with time across the northern and eastern US.

WRF-NMM 500 Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Mon Oct 17, 2011.

By Monday the jet stream is forecast to buckle as a short wave trough of low pressure dives southward into the central plains of the US. This in turn will drive a cold front southward down the eastern plains of New Mexico and into southeastern New Mexico. The front should arrive by around sunset.

Forecast Position Of The Cold Front.
Valid At 6 AM MDT Tue, Oct 18, 2011.

Forecast High Temps
Wed, Oct 19, 2011.

Forecast Low Temps
Wed Morning, Oct 19, 2011.
Maps Are Courtesy Of The NWS HPC.

October can be an interesting month weather-wise. Its fairly common for our temperatures to bounce all over the place, as the battle between the cooler air approaching from the north, and the warmer air to the south continues. The jet stream will become stronger and more active with time. Meanwhile, the stout upper-level ridge of high pressure that has so dominated our local weather this year will continue to hold firm. This ridge of high pressure continues to keep our rain chances at a minimum.

Our temperatures are forecast to remain some 10-15 degrees above normal today into Monday. Forecast highs for today have been dropped back down into the mid 80's. Sunday should see the low 90's return, and by Monday we will be pushing the mid 90's. A few record high temperatures will be in danger of falling on Monday.

A seasonably strong but dry cold front will knock our daytime high temps back down into the 60's and 70's on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will dip down into the 30's and 40's.

Normal High/Low Temps.
(New 1981 - 2010 30-Year Normal's.)

For Oct 15th-

Roswell 74/47
Artesia 78/44
Carlsbad 78/49
Hobbs 78/50
Tatum 78/43

Elk 70/36
Capitan 69/38
Ruidoso 67/36
Cloudcroft 60/33

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Comments

  1. Very interesting! I saw Phoenix was staying 100-ish for days...and once again, you all bounce back and forth, while Abq warms to barely above average, then a longer dip cooler, then average, and so on. I guess you are too low in elevation, and too far S and E, to be affected by the tail ends of colder air NW and NE?

    Amazing how these tendencies seem stuck anymore!

    ReplyDelete

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