Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Best Chances For Some Badly Needed Rain Since January.








Best Chances For Rain We've Seen Since January.


ECMWF Temperature Anomaly Forecast @ 6 PM MDT Friday.

ECMWF Temperature Anomaly Forecast @ 6 PM MDT Saturday.

NAM Simulated Radar Forecast @ 9 AM MDT Friday.

NAM Simulated Radar Forecast @ Noon MDT Friday.

NAM Simulated Radar Forecast @ 3 PM MDT Friday.

NAM Simulated Radar Forecast @ 6 PM MDT Friday.

ECMWF 10-Day Total Precipitation Forecast.

A cold front will stall over the area today, then drift slowly southward tonight into tomorrow morning. It is then expected to stall over the area once again on Friday. The frontal boundary location as well as outflow boundaries will play a key role in who gets the most rainfall tonight into tomorrow night.

 A cutoff upper-level low is forecast to stall over northern Mexico to our southwest. These two features will combine to give us a decent shot at some badly needed rainfall...some of which possibly could be heavy in a few spots. Rainfall totals from this system could reach or exceed 1.00" in a few isolated spots by Saturday night. 

Today will be warm and dry ahead of the approaching cold front with afternoon highs ranging from the low 80's to the upper 80's. 

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible today into this evening across parts of west Texas along and east of the dryline, and south of the cold front. Spotter Activation may be requested across parts of the Midland National Weather Service County Warning Area later this afternoon and evening. 

Its possible that severe thunderstorms may occur in parts of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas again on Friday. However, should the front arrives faster than forecast, then we may end up with a cooler and more stable airmass in place, which would then limit this possibility across much of southeastern New Mexico. Friday could end being once of those days that is overcast, cool, with on and off again rain showers, along with a few embedded thunderstorms at times. 

As the cold front slowly enters the local area tonight, a low-level easterly upslope flow will increase the surface moisture values. Lift and instability will also increase tonight into Friday as the upper-level storm to our southwest draws closer. 

A cooler and more moist airmass will overspread the area tomorrow into Sunday behind the front. Highs on Friday will range from the 60's to near 70. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 70's, while Sunday will see highs in the mid-upper 70's. 

Our best chances for rain will likely occur tomorrow into Saturday. Current National Weather Service forecasts give us a 20% - 40% chance of getting wet tonight, a 40% - 50% chance tomorrow, and then a 20% - 30% chance tomorrow night into Saturday. 

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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