Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Some Badly Needed Rainfall Appears On The Way!


Photo Is Courtesy Of Linda Rawson Of Santa Fe, NM,

Quote- "Another view of the incredible pyrocumulonimbus cloud atop the Jaroso wildfire captured during the late afternoon of Tuesday, June 11th. The KABX-88D radar detected echoes up to near 40,000 feet MSL, and an anvil was briefly observed that indicated positively buoyant air parcels generated by the fire reached the tropopause. Photo courtesy of Linda Rawson, Santa Fe."

Currently there are four wildfires burning across New Mexico. These include the Silver, Thompson Ridge, Tres Lagunas, and the Jaroso fires. Wetting rains are desperately needed across the state to help squelch these fires and dampen the effects of the drought.

What Are Our Chances Of Getting Wet?

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Saturday.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Saturday.

Valid @ 6AM MDT Saturday.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday.

Four different computer forecast models offering four different forecasts. What we will end up with will likely be somewhere in the middle of these forecasts. Should the inverted mid-level trough of low pressure that is forecast to enter the area from the south on Friday, move a little further to the east than is currently forecast, then our rains will move east into west Texas with it. If this feature slides more westward, and northward into the state, then our chances for some badly needed wetting rains will go up.

Update At 1:20 PM MDT-

This Mornings ECMWF Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ Midnight Saturday.

This is not what I was hoping to see from the European model this morning. Its shifting the rain shield further eastward into west Texas. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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