Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Dangerous Winter Storm Coming!

Temperatures @ 2 PM MST Today.

Temperatures @ 2 PM MST Today.

Temperatures @ 2 PM MST Today.

A brutal arctic mass is currently moving south into northern Wyoming and southern South Dakota as of 2 PM MST this Wednesday afternoon. This morning the weather station located at Rabbit Kettle in the Northwestern Territories of the Canadian Yukon plunged to -55F for a low temperature. That's brutal even in the dead of winter (January or February). Temperatures are falling rapidly into the single digits as of 2 PM MST across northern Montana, near the Canadian border, as this powerful arctic cold front continues to plunge south.

WRF/NAM Forecast Temperatures.
Valid @ Noon MST Thursday.

WRF/NAM Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 9 PM MST Thursday Night.

WRF/NAM Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Friday.

Get ready folks...its going to get much much colder across much of the local area. This arctic airmass should be sliding into northeastern New Mexico by around noontime Thursday. It will continue its southward plunge, and will be arriving in southeastern New Mexico by around 9 PM MST Thursday night according to today's 18Z/11 AM MST run of the WRF/NAM forecast model (see the forecast temp maps above). The fronts arrival time may vary a little from this, arriving a little faster, or slower than indicated above. Either way a very cold airmass is going to settle into the area, and we will be lucky to see our temps get much above freezing on Friday and Saturday. 

Strong and gusty northerly to northeasterly winds will accompany the frontal passage. These winds will be sustained at around 20 -30 mph with some locations seeing gusts up to 50 mph, especially through the gaps on the central mountains, the eastern plains, and the Rio Grande Valley.

Wind Chill values will fall into the teens on Friday into Friday night.


GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Friday.

GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Friday.

GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Friday.

GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Saturday.

GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday.

If today's model runs are anywhere close to being correct southeastern New Mexico, and nearby surrounding local areas are in for a wintry mixed mess. Starting as early as late Thursday night, and continuing into Sunday. All current indicators point to a wintry mix of drizzle, freezing drizzle, rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. For now we are looking at the potential for having an ice storm that could possibly significantly affect the local area. Ice accumulating on exposed surfaces such as power lines, trees, roadways, and sidewalks could make for some very slippery and dangerous conditions.

Heavy Snow Possible!

GFS Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday.

GEM Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday.

ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday.

ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday.

NAM Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Saturday.

Winter Storm Watch.

Special Weather Statement Via NWS Midland.

Special Weather Statement Via NWS Lubbock.

Special Weather Statement Via NWS Albuquerque.

Just how much rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow will fall over the state and local area is still questionable at this time. The models haven't yet settled down and figured this part of the storm out. It still appears that the mountains of New Mexico stand a good chance of picking up some heavy snow from this potentially major winter storm. No doubt some mountain communities may be measuring their new snowfall totals by the feet come Monday. And there is the possibility that some of the valley locations of the state may also end up getting some decent snowfall totals by Monday.

This is a dangerous winter storm that is going to affect the entire state and should be taken seriously. Our roads across the state and local are likely to become a nightmare due to the freezing rain, sleet, and snow! I expect to see road closures. Heavy snow, blowing snow, and drifting snow will also impact some roadways...especially across the mountains.

This is an evolving and changing situation, not to mention a dangerous one at that. So please visit my web page often for the very latest updates, forecasts, watches, warnings, special weather statements, and radar information during this High Impact Winter Event to affect the area Thursday into Monday.

Please visit the following National Weather Service Offices
 for the very latest on this impending Major Winter Storm-

Amarillo

Lubbock

Midland

El Paso

Albuquerque

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

 My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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