Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Winter Wonderland By Next Weekend?









Other peak wind gusts as noted by the Midland National Weather Service Office, and the El Paso National Weather Service Office


GFS 500 MB Forecast.
 Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, November 23, 2013.

ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
 Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, November 23, 2013.

Canadian (GEM) 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, November 23, 2013.

GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Saturday, November 23, 2013.

GFS Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Sunday, November 24, 2013.

ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Sunday, November 24, 2013.

Canadian (GEM) Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Sunday, November 24, 2013.

GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, November 23, 2013.

ECMWF Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, November 23, 2013.

By the end of this upcoming week our weather could be vastly different than what we are currently experiencing. Which is forecast highs today in the low-mid 70's, the mid-upper 60's on Monday, near 70 to the low 70's on Tuesday, the upper 70's Wednesday, and the low-mid 60's on Thursday.

All three of the main long-range computer forecast models (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) are forecasting a strong upper-level storm to break off from the main jet stream flow, and either cut itself off over the Desert Southwest, or slide just to our south as a closed upper-level low. This is significant because you don't see the models agreeing this closely with each other this far out very often.

 Whether or not this forecast pans out is highly speculative at this time but bears watching. Notice that the Canadian model goes nuts with its forecast of  nearly a foot of snow across the mountains! Interestingly enough too is the GFS forecast of a mix of wintry precipitation over the area next Saturday night.

Anyway this will be a fun storm to watch to see how all of this shakes out. So far we are seeing a good start to our snow pack across the northern mountains of the state...hopefully the trend continues, and spreads to the rest of the watersheds. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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