My Blog Archive List

Show more

Strong Back-Door Front Still On Track For Tuesday.



12Z/5 AM MST GFS 850 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Tuesday.

12Z/11 AM MST GFS Wind Chill Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Wednesday.


12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 850 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 850 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/11 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/11 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/11 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Wednesday.

We are still on track to see a strong back-door arctic cold front plow into southeastern New Mexico by Tuesday. The models continue to differ with the fronts timing as far as its arrival is concerned.

 The U.S. GFS model still wants to bring the front into our local area Tuesday afternoon. While the European model (ECMWF) has it knocking on our front door by sunrise Tuesday morning. 

If the GFS model is correct then our high temperatures across southeastern New Mexico will range from the mid 50's to the low 60's on Tuesday. If the European model is correct then our highs will only be in the upper 40's to low 50's if not colder on Tuesday.

Either way we are only going to receive a glancing blow from this blast of cold air. Take a look at the temperatures at the 850 millibar level, or the 5,000 Mean Sea Level, as depicted by both models above. Its obvious that the colder core of this arctic airmass will remain well off to our northeast.

It will also be interesting to watch and see if this front has enough ump to push eastward through the central mountain chain, and spill westward into the Rio Grande Valley. 

Strong gusty northerly to northeasterly winds will also accompany the frontal passage..with wind chill values dropping down into the 30's. So it will definitely feel rather raw and chilly when the front does arrive. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

 My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.

My Current Davis Vantage Pro Plus Weather

NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
Current Watches In Effect

Storm Prediction Center

Storm Prediction Center
Severe Weather Outlooks/Watches - Click On The Map To Open It.

NWS Watch/Warning/Hazards Map

NWS Watch/Warning/Hazards Map
Click On The Map To Go To The Live Link.

NWS 12-Hour Surface Map Forecast

NWS 12-Hour Surface Map Forecast
Click On The Map To Open It Up.

Current New Mexico NWS Watches/Warnings In Effect

NWS Midland Web Page

NWS Midland Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

Eddy County Watches & Warnings

Lea County Watches & Warnings

Culberson County - Guadalupe Mtn's Watches & Warnings

NWS Albuquerque Web Page

NWS Albuquerque Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecasts.

Chaves County Watches & Warnings

Lincoln County Watches & Warnings

NWS El Paso Web Page

NWS El Paso Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa Regional Forecasts.

Otero County Watches & Warnings

NWS Lubbock Web Page

NWS Lubbock Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecasts.

Current Temperatures

Current Temperatures
Click On The Map To Go To The Live Link

Current Wind Chill & Heat Index

Current Wind Chill & Heat Index
Click On The Map To Go To The Live Link

National Radar

National Radar
Click On The Map To Enlarge It

Regional Radar

Regional Radar
Click On The Map To Enlarge It

CoCoRaHS Daily Rainfall Map

My Photo Slide Show

Cloudcroft Live Webcam