Winter Outlook 2013 - 2014.

I normally don't like to speculate too much on long-range weather forecasts simply because I don't think that they are very accurate most of the time. In my opinion long-range weather forecasting is risky business. Trying to predict the weather in southeastern New Mexico over the next week is hard enough...much less three months at a time. Listed below are some of the long-range forecasts that have been put out there.

National Weather Service.

Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA Novermber-December-January Temperature Outlook.

NOAA Novermber-December-January Precipitation Outlook.

NOAA December-January-February Temperature Outlook.

NOAA December-January-February Precipitation Outlook.


Albuquerque NM NWS 2013-2014 Winter Outlook.

Besides I don't have a good feel for what we are facing this winter. There are some indications that a weak El Nino may be trying to start, and some of the other long-range models want to continue the current ENSO Neutral  Phase. But overall there are no clear signals in my opinion.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 

The PDO index has been reconstructed using tree rings and other hydrologically sensitive proxies from west North America and Asia.[3][21][22]
MacDonald and Case[23] reconstructed the PDO back to 993 using tree rings from California and Alberta. The index shows a 50-70 year periodicity but this is a strong mode of variability only after 1800, a persistent negative phase occurred during medieval times (993-1300) which is consistent with la nina conditions reconstructed in the tropical Pacific[24] and multi-century droughts in the South-West United States.[25]
Several regime shifts are apparent both in the reconstructions and instrumental data, during the 20th century regime shifts associated with concurrent changes in SSTSLP, land precipitation and ocean cloud cover occurred in 1924/1925,1945/1946 and 1976/1977:[26]
  • 1750: PDO displays an unusually strong oscillation.[3]
  • 1924/1925: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[26]
  • 1945/1946: The PDO changed to a "cool" phase, the pattern of this regime shift is similar to the 1970s episode with maximum amplitude in the subarctic and subtropical front but with a greater signature near the Japan while the 1970s shift was stronger near the American west coast.[26][27]
  • 1976/1977: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[28]
  • 1988/1989:A weakening of the Aleutian low with associated SST changes was observed,[29] in contrast to others regime shifts this change appears to be related to concurrent extratropical oscillation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic rather than tropical processes.[30]
  • 1997/1998: Several changes in Sea surface temperature and marine ecosystem occurred in the North Pacific after 1997/1998, in contrast to prevailing anomalies observed after the 1970s shift. The SST declined along the United States west coast and substantial changes in the populations of salmonanchovy and sardine were observed as the PDO changed back to a cool "anchovy" phase .[31] However the spatial pattern of the SST change was different with a meridional SST seesaw in the central and western Pacific that resembled a strong shift in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation rather than the PDO structure. This pattern dominated much of the North Pacific SST variability after 1989.[32]

I do think we will are trending back towards the types of winters that we had back in the 1940's through the 1970's with the current Cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase. Basically whenever the Pacific Ocean cools off we tend to have hotter and drier summers, and sometimes colder winters, here in the Desert Southwest. Although we can and do have a lot of variability to this. Whenever El Nino kicks in our winters can be very wet and snowy.

Global Cooling Due To The Sun?

There is a wild card in all of this too and that is what is going on with the sun. I happen to believe that Man Made Global Warming theory is nothing more than a lie. I think its a political lie constricted to fit the needs of the Liberal Far Left Politicians and their agenda in our country. In reality I think we may be headed towards another Little Ice Age. More via this web page- Ice Age Now. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and this is mine.

As the sun continues to trend towards a dimming trend with diminished sunspot activity I think we are headed towards planetary cooling, and possibly another Little Ice Age. Some scientists think this may already be underway, while others think its coming soon. Of course the Global Warming crowd believes the opposite of this.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

 My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.


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