Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Tuesday Looks Cold.


Can You Spot The Man In The Moon?
I Shot This Late Yesterday Evening Here In Carlsbad, New Mexico.


12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM 850 MB Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 8 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 2 PM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Precipitation/Type Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Precipitation/Type Forecast.
Valid @ 8 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Precipitation/Type Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

This mornings WRF/NAM model has the tongue of colder arctic air at the 850 millibar level, or the 5,000' mean sea level, a little further south and west than the GFS model has been forecasting. It falls a little more in line with the European model (ECMWF) forecasts of the past few days. 

So if the model is correct then the strong back-door cold front will arrive in southeastern New Mexico and west Texas by sunrise Tuesday morning. Strong gusty northerly to northeasterly winds accompanied by falling temperatures, and wind chill values in the 30's, will certainly make for a chilly day Tuesday. 

If this model is correct then we may not get out of the 40's for daytime highs on Tuesday. A few light rain showers or pockets of drizzle along with low clouds will make for a dreary morning and afternoon also.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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