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Tuesday Looks Cold.

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Can You Spot The Man In The Moon?
I Shot This Late Yesterday Evening Here In Carlsbad, New Mexico.


12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM 850 MB Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 8 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 2 PM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Precipitation/Type Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Precipitation/Type Forecast.
Valid @ 8 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Precipitation/Type Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

This mornings WRF/NAM model has the tongue of colder arctic air at the 850 millibar level, or the 5,000' mean sea level, a little further south and west than the GFS model has been forecasting. It falls a little more in line with the European model (ECMWF) forecasts of the past few days. 

So if the model is correct then the strong back-door cold front will arrive in southeastern New Mexico and west Texas by sunrise Tuesday morning. Strong gusty northerly to northeasterly winds accompanied by falling temperatures, and wind chill values in the 30's, will certainly make for a chilly day Tuesday. 

If this model is correct then we may not get out of the 40's for daytime highs on Tuesday. A few light rain showers or pockets of drizzle along with low clouds will make for a dreary morning and afternoon also.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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My Top 10 Most Popular Posts

Artesia, NM Mothership Supercell Thunderstorm. 9-17-2016.

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Blog Updated 9-19-2016 @ 6:31 PM MDT. Diane & I Chase A Monster Of A Supercell!  Saturday, Sept 17, 2016.  Courtesy Of Diane J. Malone. My Wife (Diane) And I Took Old Yo Crossing Rd. South Out Of Roswell And Finally Got Out In Front Of This Monster Of A Supercell Thunderstorm On St. Hwy 13. She Took This Photo Near Mile Marker 11. Pretty Much Describes Rural Southeastern New Mexico. 3:09 PM MDT: This Beast Had Multiple Wall Clouds That At Times Showed Slow Rotation And At Other Times Was Spinning Like A Top. This Was A Ground Hugger At Times As Well. Initially When This Storm Developed South Of Picacho It Was Showing A Northeastward Movement On Radar. That Didn't Last Long As It Intensified And Started Heading East Then Made A Right Turn (Right Mover) And Took Off To The Southeast. At Times Moving Southeastward At 15-20 MPH Then It Would Accelerating To 40 MPH.  3:47 PM MDT: We Are About 1 Mile West Of Hope In Western Eddy County On ...
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New Mexico This Coming Christmas Weekend? Those of us who live in New Mexico have developed a unique sense of humor when it comes to our weather. I've often said that we live in a place where extremes more often than not are normal. Take for example the rest of this weeks forecast for Carlsbad depicted below. Latest NWS Forecast For Carlsbad, New Mexico. My high temperature here at our home yesterday was 74°F. Contrast that to what's coming this weekend...depicted below. Its not unusual at all to have high temps in the 70's or even the 80's ahead of a strong winter storm locally. We saw this with the major snowstorms in December 1987, December 1997, and February 2011, and with other strong winter storms too. Long Range Model Forecasts On Weekend Storm. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST European (ECMWF) 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 11AM MST Sunday, Dec ...
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Blog Updated At 9:57 PM MST. Courtesy Of Glen Brazell. Shared On Twitter By Kerry Jones. Nearly 30" The Ground In Ruidoso, NM. Downtown Ruidoso, New Mexico. Ruidoso Web Cam Snapshot At 1:54 PM MST This Afternoon. National Weather Service Watches & Warnings In Effect. As Of 5 AM MST Friday, December 28, 2018. Click On This Link To Open Up The Latest Updated Map. Then Once The Map Opens Up, Click Anywhere On The Map To Be Re-directed To Your Area Of Interest. The NWS Office That Has Forecast And Warning Responsibility For That Location Will Have The Latest Weather Information Posted On Their Web Page. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Analysis. Valid At 11 PM MST Thursday Evening. As of midnight last night a slow moving and powerful closed upper level low was located over northern Arizona. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Today.  This winter storm is forecast to continue sinking slowly ...
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25th Anniversary Of The Carlsbad, NM (May 31, 1991) Tornado Coming Up.

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Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT. Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them. On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with.  The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening. The Tornado's path is circled in red...
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Major Winter Storm May Paralyze/Bury Parts Of NM & Nearby Areas Tonight Into Wednesday!

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Winter Storm Watches & Warnings Are In Effect - Click On This Link For Additional Details. U.S. GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday. Today's (Sunday) noon mdt run of the GFS forecast model is just plain nuts. Its trend has been to produce heavier snowfall totals and aerial coverages with each new run over the past day. This has me worried. 19" for Roswell, 12" for Artesia, 15" for Clovis, 28" for the Fort Sumner area, and 17" for Corona! This would be wild in the dead of winter but is absolutely unheard of in the part of the world in October! The last time we saw something like this come to pass was the Blizzard of December 27, 28, 29th, 2015. Will history repeats itself? I hope not but I will admit that I am worried. My feeling is that we will see snowfall accumulations of around 6" to 12" in SE NM and 6" to 18" in the mountains.  GFS Freezing Rain Accumulation Forecast. Valid Tonight Through PM MDT Wednes...
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2011 Skywarn Spotter Training Classes & My Thoughts.

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GFS Drinking Same Kool-Aid As ECMWF? Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Surface Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Accumulated Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. U.S. GFS 10-Day Forecasts. Albuquerque, New Mexico. Clines Corners, New Mexico. Cannon Air Force Base - Clovis, New Mexico. Corona, New Mexico. Sierra Blanca Regional Airport - Ruidoso, New Mexico. Roswell, New Mexico. Artesia, New Mexico. Carlsbad, New Mexico. Hobbs, New Mexico. Guadalupe Pass, Texas. El Paso, Texas. Blog Updated @ 12:15 AM MST: Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Just took a look at the tonight's run of the European model which just came in. Its forecasting snowfall totals of 26" fo...
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Blog Updated At 1:45 PM MDT Saturday, May 19, 2018. May 24, 2013. Looking Back To The West Of Hope. Big Changes Coming Starting Tonight. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday, May 21, 2018. Surface Map Analysis. Valid At 6 AM MDT This Saturday Morning. Temperatures At 10 AM This Morning. Temperatures At 1 PM MDT This Afternoon. Now that's a stout cold front. Take a look at these temperatures as of 1 PM MDT this Saturday afternoon. As Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas climbs up into the 90's the plains of northeastern Colorado, most of Nebraska, Wyoming, and parts of Montana are in the 40's and 50's!  NWS MesoWest Reported Low Temperatures This Morning. Surface Map Forecast. Strong Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight. A strong cold front is forecast to move southward down the Eastern Plains of New Mexico late tonight into Sunday morning. Low temperatures across the plains ...
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Cloudcroft & Ruidoso, NM Seasonal Snowfall Totals.

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Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Oct 1st, 2019 - January 19th, 2020). January 11th, 2020. South Of Cloudcroft, New Mexico. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Cloudcroft, New Mexico 8,750'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Ruidoso, New Mexico 6,950'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. As a kid growing up in Artesia, New Mexico I always was fascinated by the snowfall in the Sacramento mountains. Especially in the Cloudcroft and Ruidoso areas. Many times Cloudcroft would see their first snowfall by Halloween. It was not unusual to see snow on the ground from around Thanksgiving through Easter in many of these years.  Sierra Blanca Peak (White Mountain or Old Baldy) west of Ruidoso more often than not was coated with snow from before Thanksgiving to after Easter as well.  If you have been thinking that it does not snow as much in the Sacramento mountains as i...
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This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely upon during severe weather. Do not rely solely on the Internet. Be weather-aware, plan ahead, have a backup plan, and be ready to act before severe weather strikes your location.