Just as was expected our thermometers are heating up here in southeastern New Mexico ahead of an unseasonably strong cold front. At 4 PM MDT temps ranged from 79°F in Clayton in northeastern New Mexico, where the front has just entered that area, to 101°F in Carlsbad, 99°F in Artesia, and 100°F in Roswell. Temperatures in South Dakota and northern Nebraska are in the 50's behind the front.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday.
18Z/Noon MDT NAM-WRF Low Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday.
Most of the models agree that the approaching cold front will arrive in southeastern New Mexico by around sunrise Wednesday morning. What they don't agree upon is the amount of cooling behind the front tomorrow. This cooling will depend upon how fast the front surges south tonight, how much low level cloud cover will blanket the area behind it tomorrow, and how much thunderstorm activity develops over the area this afternoon into tonight. Our high temperatures tomorrow will be some 20°F to 30°F cooler than today.
So as a general rule it appears at this time that we will see afternoon high temps on Wednesday that will range from the upper 60's to the 70's across eastern and southeastern New Mexico. If the front is delayed in reaching the Carlsbad area tomorrow morning then we may even see the 80's. Stiff northerly winds will accompany the frontal passage with gusts of around 20-35 mph.
As skies clear Wednesday night into Thursday morning we will see our low temperatures dip down into the 50's and low 60's. There could even be some 40's over parts of northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Thursday's highs will be in the 80's.
A large cluster of thunderstorms (MCS) moved southeastward down the eastern plains into southeastern New Mexico from around midnight through 8 AM this morning. Lea County saw the most local rainfall with CoCoRaHS totals ranging from around a tenth of an inch up to three tenths of an inch. The same was true for the Clovis and Portales areas. The 8-Mile Draw Raws northeast of Roswell picked up .43".
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!