Tropical Storm Harvey Has Stalled - Catastrophic Flooding Still Forecast For South Texas!
Valid At 5:29 PM MDT This Saturday Afternoon.
Its hard to fathom just how bad conditions are forecast to become across parts of south and southeast Texas over the five days or so. Most people simply don't understand the consequences of what happens when you unload this much water (rain) from the atmosphere over such a large expanse of countryside. In fairness how can they? If the computer forecast models are correct on the forecast rainfall totals from Harvey over next several days to nearly a week ahead, then that part of our nation will see flooding that most people who live there have never seen in their lives! Forecast models are holding fast with their forecasts of an additional 15 to 30 inches of rainfall with isolated locations possibly seeing 40 inches or more, and this on top of the 5 to 17 inches that has already fallen.
This is one of those times when many people are praying and hoping the models are wrong.
Consider This Afternoons Hurricane Statements:
From The Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Office-
Their PDF File On This Life Threatening Situation-
Their PDF File On This Life Threatening Situation-
Hurricane Local Statement.
Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 26
TXZ229>234-239>247-270530-
Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 26
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX AL092017
427 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017
This product covers SOUTH TEXAS
**TROPICAL STORM HARVEY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF VICTORIA**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Aransas, Calhoun, Refugio, and Victoria
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bee, Goliad, Jim
Wells, Kleberg, Live Oak, Nueces, and San Patricio
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 90 miles west-northwest of Port Oconnor TX
- 29.1N 97.6W
- Storm Intensity 65 mph
- Movement Stationary
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Tropical Storm Harvey has become stationary west of Cuero in DeWitt
County to the northwest of Victoria. Tropical Storm Warning remains
in effect for the Coastal Bend, Victoria Crossroads, and the Middle
Texas coastal waters. Tropical Storm Harvey will remain nearly
stationary tonight then drift south to southeast back toward the
Middle Texas coast Sunday through Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds will continue to impact portions of South
Texas generally east of Highway 281 and over the coastal waters for
tonight.
Catastrophic life-threatening flooding is still expected due to the
heavy rainfall that is expected over the next several days. Storm
total rainfall accumulations will be as much as 15 to 30 inches of
rainfall with isolated 40 inches across eastern portions of South
Texas, mainly east of a line from Beeville to Port Aransas. West of
that area up to Highway 16, generally 5 to 15 inches of rainfall will
be possible. West of Highway 16, generally 5 inches or less of
rainfall is expected.
Storm surge inundation will remain from 4 to 7 feet from Port Aransas
to Port Lavaca tonight. Flooding from storm surge inundation will
gradually subside by Sunday. South of Port Aransas, offshore winds
have provided a significant decrease in tide levels.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible along and to the east of a line
from Beeville to Port Aransas tonight.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads area, mainly east of Highway
16. Remain well guarded against life-threatening flood waters having
possible catastrophic impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or washed out.
* SURGE:
Impacts from the surge event are now unfolding across the Middle Texas
coast between Port Aransas and Port Lavaca. Tide inundation levels
will continue to be from 4 to 7 feet AGL. Remain well away from
life-threatening surge having additional extensive impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Victoria Crossroads into the Coastal Bend. If realized, these
impacts include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.
Elsewhere across SOUTH TEXAS, little to no impact is anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the
Victoria Crossroads. If realized, these impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
Elsewhere across SOUTH TEXAS, little to no impact is anticipated.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
RECOVERY PHASE - Do not return to evacuated areas until it is safe.
Listen for the all-clear signal from local authorities.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Corpus Christi TX around 7 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
$$
TMT
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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