Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 30-Day Temperature Graph

Heavy Rains For Southern NM Including the Guadalupe/Sacramento/Capitan Mtn's.

Blog Updated At 1:50 PM MDT.

Valid Today - Saturday, August 26, 2017.

U.S. GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today - 6 AM MDT Wednesday, August 23, 2017.

Valid Today - 6 PM MDT Monday, August 21, 2017.

U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast Map.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday, August 20, 2017.

At 10:16 AM MDT This Morning.

Abundant tropical moisture is being pulled northward and northeastward into New Mexico and West Texas from Mexico and the Baja Region. Southwesterly flow around a weak upper level low located off of the southern California Coast is aiding in this process, Several weak disturbances are forecast to rotate northeastward over the region today into the first of next week.

Southern New Mexico including the Sacramento mountains are slated to pick up heavy rainfall today into the middle of next week. The GFS model falls off the end of the earth in forecasting rainfall totals of 8.00" in the Queen area and 12.00" in the Cloudcroft area by Wednesday morning. I have doubts that this much rain will fall but given the tropical nature of the atmosphere and the slow movement of thunderstorms no doubt these areas will see heavy rains. This mornings run of the Weather Prediction Centers Rainfall Model (WPC) predicts 2.00" to 5.00" over the Sacramento mountains and 2.00" over the Guadalupe's today into Wednesday. Flash flooding will be a concern today into at least Monday.

Heavy rains are forecast for the areas highlighted above. General rainfall totals of .50" to 1.50" are forecast with isolated 2.00" to 4.00" totals possible in the Sacramento mountains by Monday morning. 

Notice that Southeastern New Mexico is just on the edge of the heavier rainfall forecasts with the heaviest rains currently forecast to fall over the mountains to our southwest through northwest. It wouldn't take much of a shift eastward to bring these heavy rains into the Pecos Valley. And any heavy to excessively heavy rains that do fall over the east face and slopes of the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan mountains will runoff into the arroyos in the Pecos Valley so Flash Flooding may become a concern for some of us also.

August 2017 Rainfall Totals.
(August 1st - August 18th).

(January 1st - August 17, 2017).

Departure From Normal Rainfall Totals.
(January 1st - August 17th, 2017).

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!


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