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A Wet August & What About Harvey?


Thunderstorms Miss Roswell & Artesia Yesterday. 

24-Hour Storm Total Rainfall Estimates.
Courtesy Of The Cannon AFB Dual Pol Doppler Radar.

An isolated strong thunderstorm dumped heavy rain just southeast of the Flying H Ranch yesterday afternoon. Radar estimates that 2.50" of rain may have fallen. Another isolated storm may have dumped 2.25" of rain on open range land about 19 miles northwest of Roswell. Thunderstorm activity will increase this afternoon and evening with most of us here in Southeastern New Mexico having a 30% to 40% chance of getting wet. Thunderstorms remain in our local forecast today into the weekend.

(Aug 1st - Aug 21st).


New Mexico Year-To-Date Rainfall.
(Jan 1st - Aug 21st).
 

Selected Heaviest Rainfall Totals For August & YTD.
(Aug 1st - Aug 21st) & (Jan 1st - Aug 21st).

Roosevelt County,

2.9 SW Portales- 10.82" (YTD 24.28").
Portales Climate- 8.99" (YTD 20.58").

Lincoln County.

2.5 SSW Arabela-  8.07" (YTD 15.25").
Picacho Climate 3.69" (YTD 10.48"). 

Curry County.

6.0 S Texico - 7.73" (YTD 19.43").

Otero County.

5.4 W Cloudcroft- 6.93" (YTD 18.32").
Cloudcroft Climate 4.52" (YTD 17.99"). 

Lea County.

1.2 W Monument 6.10" (YTD 12.17").
Tatum Climate 3.25" (YTD 9.80"). 
2.4 ESE Hobbs 2.25" (YTD 10.36").

Eddy County.

1.9 NW Carlsbad 4.34" (YTD 10.69").
Carlsbad Airport 4.34" (YTD 8.19").
Carlsbad Climate 3.48" (YTD 8.59").
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 3.11" (YTD 9.01").
Artesia Climate 2.77" (YTD 8.70").

Chaves County.

52.1 NNW Roswell 3.22" (YTD 8.97").
4.1 NNE 1.81" (YTD 7.48"). 
Elk Climate 3.08" (YTD 10.81"). 
Roswell Airport .91" (YTD 6.71"). 

Rainfall totals are courtesy of CoCoRaHS and the following local National Weather Service Offices: Albuquerque, Midland, and El Paso

Boom or bust and it all depends where you are located. Typical summer pattern rainfall-wise so far. 

Hurricane Harvey?


Harvey has fallen apart as he crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today but is forecast to reorganize and strengthen into a Tropical Storm over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday or Thursday. 


Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday, August 21, 2017.

Harvey has the potential to rapidly intensify over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. 


Last Nights Midnight Forecast.


Last nights Midnight MDT run of the U.S. GFS forecast model had Harvey making landfall near Corpus Christi, TX by around sunset Friday with 125 mph sustained winds. 

This Mornings 6 AM MDT Forecast. 


This mornings 12Z or 6 AM MDT run of the U.S. GFS forecast model has Harvey making landfall again near Corpus Christi, TX by around sunset Friday but somewhat weaker with sustained winds of 100 mph. 





Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday, August 28, 2017.

This mornings 12Z or 6 AM MDT run of the U.S. GFS forecast model produces 29" of rain over southeast Texas by next Monday. 


Valid At Noon MDT Friday.

Valid Noon MDT Sunday.

This mornings 12Z or 6 AM MDT run of the HWRF computer forecast model brings Harvey inland near Corpus Christi, TX by around noon on Friday with sustained winds of 107 mph. 

In contrast this mornings European forecast model (ECMWF) brings Harvey inland near Brownsville around noon Friday and much weaker as a Tropical Storm. 

Since Harvey has yet to emerge out over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico these forecasts should be used with a good deal of caution. The models will have a better handle on the potential track and strength of Harvey tomorrow and Thursday as he begins to strengthen out over the open Gulf. Anyone living along the Texas Gulf Coast should pay attention and be prepared for the possibility of a Hurricane by the end of this week and weekend. Flooding rains will also be a big part of Harvey's history wherever he tracks. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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