Severe T-Storms This Weekend - Big Changes Next Week!

Deep Cold Upper-Level Low Brings Winter To The Rockies.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Sept 26th, 2019.

GFS 500 MB/18,000' Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday, Sept 29th, 2019.

GFS 500 MB/18,000' Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Oct 2nd, 2019.

GFS 250 MB/39,000' Forecast.
(Jet Stream Position Forecast).

Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday, Sept 29th, 2019.

A Major Winter Storm will impact parts of the northern Rockies (specifically northwestern Montana) Friday into Sunday. Up to three feet of snow is forecast to fall! This courtesy of the Polar Jet Stream diving southward into the Pacific Northwest this weekend as depicted by the GFS Jet Stream forecast map above.

 Snow in the Rockies in September is common and there is nothing unusual about this. What makes this early Winter Storm news worthy is how much heavy snow is forecast to fall. Snow in parts of the New Mexico mountains isn't all that unusual in late September either. I've personally have seen snow falling at the base of Ski Apache located west of Ruidoso, New Mexico, more than once over the years this time of the year. 

In fact on September 26th, 1936 Denver, Colorado was burried under 21 inches of snow. 19 inches of that fell in 24-hours.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Oct 2nd, 2019.

Closed Mid-Upper Level Low Lifts Northeast.


Currently we have a closed mid-upper level low sitting over the northern Baja, California Region. This feature will lift northeastward and wash out over northern New Mexico by Saturday. It will get "kicked" to the northeast by the next approaching mid-upper level trough of low pressure diving into the Pacific Northwest this weekend. As it crosses New Mexico scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and ahead of a sharpening dryline over the local area Friday afternoon and more so Saturday. Some of these may become severe and produced damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, large hail, and as always deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes. I wouldn't be surprised to see parts of the Marginal Risk Area upgraded to the Slight Risk Category between now and Saturday.

Big Changes Coming Next Week.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Oct 2nd, 2019.

WPC 10-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Thursday, Oct 3rd, 2019.

As the strong early Winter-like storm to our northwest dumps on parts of the northern Rockies this weekend we can will begin a slow transition to cooler and wetter weather locally.

Next week looks really interesting for New Mexico and nearby areas as the jet stream dives into the Great Basin. Thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, will impact the area. Heavy rains and flash flooding will also be possible. Don't be surprised to see the white stuff fall across some of the higher mountain peaks of the state either. Its too early to get too specific but we are slowly leaving summer behind. Hello fall! 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!


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