Still On Track To Cool Off With Thunderstorms Into Next Week.



Valid At 6:41 AM MDT This Saturday Morning.

Valid At 6:46 AM MDT This Saturday Morning.

What a beautiful image of the U.S.A this morning as the sun rises across the Rockies and Desert Southwest. The mid-level water vapor image below the visible image shows subtropical moisture streaming northward out of Mexico and into the area. This will be a contributing factor in aiding thunderstorm development today into early next week.


Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, Sept 10th, 2019.

A southward digging mid and upper level trough of low pressure is still on track to pull subtropical moisture northward from Mexico into the area Sunday into Wednesday.


Today.


Sunday.


Monday.


Tuesday.


Wednesday.



Thursday.


NWS NDFD Forecast Low Temperatures.

Next Friday Morning.



September marks the beginning of fall with a gradual drop in daytime and nightime temperatures. Our 30-year average daily high in Carlsbad for Sept 7th is 90 with an average low of 63. By the 30th of the month this drops down to 83 and 54.

 Cloudcroft in the south-central mountains at 8,750' has an average daily high of 68 and a low of 43 for Sept 7th. By the last day of the month this drops down to 64 and 37.

With the increase in moisture, clouds, and rainfall our temperatures will cool down some into next week. We are already seeing low temperatures in the 40's across some of the higher valleys of the Sacramento mountains. Note the 20's and 30's forecast for Wyoming and Colorado next Friday morning. Fall is slowly marching southward.


Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Saturday, Sept 14th, 2019.

SREF 4-Day Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, Sept 10th, 2019.

Overall the models are starting to come into better agreement concerning our chances for wetting rains and how much may fall over the area from today into the middle of next week.
Storm totals in the heavier pockets over the mountains and across parts of the Southeastern Plains could end up in the 2" to 4" range. Locally heavy rains will have the potential to produce localized flash flooding in some locals so be aware of this possibility.

16-Day GFS Temperature And Rainfall Forecasts.









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