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Will A Western Trough Pull Remnant Moisture From TS Fernand Northward This Weekend?

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Captured At 4:11 AM MDT Wednesday, Sept 4th, 2019.

Will Remnant Moisture From Tropical Storm Fernand Affect Our Weather?

GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Analysis.

Valid At Midnight Midnight Wednesday, Sept 4th, 2019.

GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast.

Valid At  6 PM MDT Sunday, Sept 8th, 2019.

A persistent ridge of high pressure at the mid levels of the atmosphere has dominated our weather of late. This ridge in part has been responsible for the excessive heat and drought this summer locally.

A pattern change continues to be forecast by the computer models especially the GFS starting this weekend. It is rather optimistic with a trough of low pressure diving southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into the western and central Rockies. This is important because at the same time the remnant moisture from now Tropical Storm Fernand located well south of Brownsville, Texas is forecast by this model to get swept up and pulled northward into northern Mexico and the local area.

The European model is much less optimistic concerning all of this and keeps us drier and warmer. So the battle of the models continues. I will note that the track record of the GFS models forecasts of late are less than impressive. Reality may be somewhere in the middle of these two model forecasts this weekend into next week.

GFS Temperature And Rainfall Forecasts.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, Sept 10th, 2019.


There is nothing unusual about a trough of low pressure pulling remnant moisture up into the area this time of the area. It happens all of the time. Hopefully the models are on to something and we are fixing to cool off and get a lot wetter.

NHC Forecast Track Of Tropical Storm Fernand.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

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Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT. Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them. On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with.  The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening. The Tornado's path is circled in red...
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This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely upon during severe weather. Do not rely solely on the Internet. Be weather-aware, plan ahead, have a backup plan, and be ready to act before severe weather strikes your location.