Significant/Major Flash Flood Event Potentially Shaping Up This Week.

Sept 28th, 2019.
Looking Southeast From Near Lakewood/Seven Rivers.

As Of 6 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 29th, 2019.

NWS New Mexico Estimated 48-Hour Rainfall Totals.

As Of 6 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 29th, 2019.

New Mexico 24-Hour Lightning Strikes.

As Of 8:15 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 28th, 2019.

New Mexico 24-Hour Lightning Strikes.

As Of 8:15 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 28th, 2019.

Thunderstorms have been busy over parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas the past couple of days. A Severe Thunderstorm dropped quarter (1" diameter) to hen egg size hail (2" diameter) on Hobbs Saturday afternoon around 6:15 PM MDT.

Last night a little after 11 PM MDT a Severe Thunderstorm rolled across southern Carlsbad producing hail that ranged in size from quarters (1" diameter) to hen eggs (2" in diameter). 

Thunderstorms have been most concentrated over the far Southeastern Plains and eastward into nearby West Texas the past couple of days...take a look at the lightning strike maps above.

NWS Regional MesoNet Reported & Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals.

24-Hour Totals As Of 8 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 29th, 2019.

48-Hour Totals As Of 8 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 29th, 2019.

Our latest round of thunderstorms have dropped beneficial rains across parts of the local area with the heaviest totals having mostly fallen in Lea County and parts of nearby West Texas. With the expected coming heavy rains the flash flood threat will greatly increase Monday into perhaps Wednesday over the local area. This will include the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan mountains and parts of southern New Mexico.

 Upper Air Pattern & Tropical Storm Narda Complicates Weather Forecasts This Week.

Oh surprise look how far south the cold closed upper-level low has dropped overnight. I'm not surprised by this since the models tend to have a hard time with storms of this magnitude and strength...especially when they are this strong and cold this early in the season. Our local weather will be impacted by this southern dip of the storm.

US GFS 500 MB/18,000' Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday.

Valid At 9:30 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 29th, 2019.

Remnant Moisture From Tropical Storm Narda To Have Huge Local Impacts Locally!

Remnant Moisture From Tropical Storm Narda Will Complicate Our Forecasts This Week.

Time to throw in a couple of kinks into our local forecasts for the upcoming week. First of all the cold closed upper-level storm centered over southern Oregon and northwestern Nevada this morning has moved further south than the models have been forecasting. Why is this important? Because now the strong southwesterly flow aloft around the storm has a better chance of snagging more of the tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Narda and pulling it northward into the area this week. 

How much moisture and for how long will have huge impacts on our local weather. What exact track does the closed upper-level low take this week will also be a huge player in all of this. Suffice to say that conditions are ripe for a significant prolonged heavy rain and flash flood event appear in the making for parts of the local area.

How Much Rain Will Fall This Week?

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Friday, Oct 4th, 2019.

WPC 7-Day Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Friday, Oct 4th, 2019.

NAM 3 KM 3-Day Regional Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Tuesday, Oct 1st, 2019.

NAM 3 KM 3-Day New Mexico Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Tuesday, Oct 1st, 2019.

NCEP WRF 3-Day Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Tuesday, Oct 1st, 2019.

I'm Worried History May Repeat Itself This Week.

To say that the computer forecast models are struggling with the placement of the heaviest rainfall and how much is an understatement. Such is often the case when dealing with tropical moisture and strong upper-level systems. Lets complicate matters even further with an approaching cold front that is forecast to arrive mid-week or late week.

Notice that the above computer model total rainfall forecasts are bordering on the extreme in a couple of them. I always try to be careful when using these since they are only a guide. But what bothers me this morning is that all of them basically agree that the area is being set up for very heavy rains to fall by Wednesday...with additional heavy rains possible the end of the upcoming work week.

Rarely do I see the models get this crazy and excessive with overall storm totals. This worries me a great deal. I have doubts as to the placement of the heaviest rains and where they will end up falling. This mornings WRF goes nuts with 22" of rain over Northeastern New Mexico between Tucumcari and Las Vegas. 

Like-wise this mornings run of the NAM 3K model dumps 12" of rain near the Vaughn area by Tuesday at sunset. The GFS model run this morning dumps 6" over the Sacramento mountains and parts of the east-central plains.

Historically local storm totals in the past from similar setups have ranged from 8" to 25". But those are rare events that occur on average about every 25 to 50 years. We faced a similar situation in September 2013 and September 2014. See my main weather web page...scroll down the left hand column until you come to the header: Local Flash Floods. Then click on the listed flash flood events.

For now local storm total rainfall amounts could easily end up totaling 2" to 6" by the end of this upcoming week. Some areas have already received 2" to 3" in the past couple of days. On the high side of rainfall totals I think we may see some spots ending up in the 6" to 12" range if not higher....which will be highly dependent upon what unfolds later this week.

Life Threatening Significant/Major Flash Flooding Event Possible This Week!

Training thunderstorms which track over the same locations multiple times in the coming days will have the potential to greatly elevate the threat for significant widespread flash flooding. Figuring out where is just not possible yet. 

Several days of heavy to excessive rainfall on top of already saturated grounds will add to the mix and and elevate the flash flood dangers across the local area. Anyone living in Southern, Southeastern, Eastern, and even parts of Northeastern New Mexico need to prepare for the possibility of a Significant Or Even Major Flash Flood Threat/Event this week. 

Hundreds if not thousands of people had to be rescued out of the local oil patch and surrounding areas of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas in September 2014 due to that Historic Flash Flood Event. Many were stranded for up to a week or more.

Could this happen again? Possibly. Will this flash flood event be as bad as 2014? Possibly but determining just where yet is too tough to call. Please continue to monitor your favorite news outlet or media source for all of our local forecasts, watches, and warnings concerning this upcoming event. As always my weather web page auto populates with all of the very latest information from our local National Weather Service Offices.

Remember to be situationally aware of your surroundings, the weather in your area, and stay updated during any and all local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, Flash Flood Watches, or Flash Flood and Flood Warnings!

Flash Flood Watches may be issued later today into Monday for the local area via our local National Weather Service Offices. 

Severe Thunderstorms Once Again This Afternoon And Evening.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

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