Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Hurricane Dorian Stalls Overnight - A Pattern Change Next Weekend?



Valid At 5:11 AM MDT Monday, Sept 3rd, 2019.





Hurricane Dorian has sustained winds of 120 mph gusting to 150 mph as of 5 AM MDT this Monday morning. His central pressure is 952 millibars or 28.11" of mercury. Dorian has remained stationary overnight and continues to unleash hell upon the northern Bahama islands. Official forecasts call for Dorian to begin a slow turn to the northwest today.

Pattern Change Next Weekend?

GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday, Sept 8, 2019.

GFS Forecast High Temps

Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday, Sept 8, 2019.

GFS Forecast Low Temps.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 8, 2019.

GFS Forecast Temperature Anomalies.

Valid At 3 PM MDT Sunday, Sept 8, 2019.



Both the GFS and the ECMWF models are forecasting a pattern change by next weekend with a trough of low pressure moving across the northern states and sending a fall-like cold front southward. A second trough of low pressure is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest.

A cold front will dip southward into the central U.S. by next weekend. How far south is uncertain at this time. Meanwhile we are forecast to remain above normal temperature-wise here in most of New Mexico and nearby areas. 

Typically the southward moving cold fronts will get a little stronger over time as we head deeper into September. September is on average our wettest month of the year here in Southeastern New Mexico too. So hopefully we will start to cool down and see more rain in the coming weeks. Its been a long hot summer and most of us are ready for cooler and wetter weather. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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