Severe T-Storms Today-Friday-Saturday!
Mescalero Apache Indian Reservation.
Between Ruidoso And Cloudcroft, New Mexico.
Blof Updated At 10:49 AM MDT Thursday.
Blog Updated At 10:15 AM MDT Thursday.
Scattered Severe T-Storms Today Into Tonight!
Rich low-level Gulf of America moisture has surged westward across the eastern one-half of New Mexico this morning and is backed up against the east slopes of the mountains. Jal is reporting a dew point temperature of 71F at 7:30 AM, the Artesia Airport 70F, and the rest of southeastern New Mexico has dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 60's. This is about as high as our dew point temperatures get. And yes, it is a very muggy morning.
A surface low was located just east of El Paso, with the dryline extending north and south from it along the east slopes of the mountains. A cold front was draped across far southeastern New Mexico and West Texas, extending southeastward from the surface low.
A shortwave will swing across the region today, aiding in lift and instability in the atmosphere.
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to form along these boundaries this afternoon into tonight. There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today into this evening across the eastern one-half of the state, roughly from the mountains eastward out onto the plains. An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast across eastern Eddy and Chaves Counties, all of Lea County, Roosevelt County, and far southern Curry County, eastward into West Texas.
Some of these storms will be discrete and supercellular in nature and will be capable of producing all severe weather hazards, including: Large to very large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, locally heavy rainfall that may produce localized flash flooding, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. A few tornadoes will also be possible along and east of the dryline and the warm front as it stalls or moves slowly back northward over the area.
Clusters of multicelluar thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon and evening as they move into West Texas. Western and southern New Mexico west of the central mountain chain will remain dry. A few isolated showers and t-storms are possible across northern New Mexico today.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the eastern one-half of the state again on Friday and perhaps to a lesser degree on Saturday.
Then we dry out and heat up. Upper 90's are forecast for southeastern New Mexico on Friday, near 100 on Saturday, and the low to mid 100's on Sunday.
Yet another upper-level trough of low pressure approaches the region the first of next week, along with another backdoor cold front arriving on Monday. Once again, our chances for t-storms ramp up along and east of the mountains of the state.
Hopefully, we will have a more normal monsoon this year with normal to above normal summer rainfall across New Mexico and surrounding areas. Typically, our monsoon starts on June 15th and ends on September 30th.
At 7:36 AM MDT, Thursday, June 5, 2025.
Valid At Noon MDT Thursday.
Friday.
Saturday.
Sunday.
SPC AC 051630 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern and central Plains into tonight. Several tornadoes (some possibly strong), large to very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. Severe gusts are also possible over parts of the Northeast this afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Morning surface analysis depicts a convectively reinforced quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across north-central TX westward through the TX South Plains to southeast/east-central NM. This boundary may have a tendency of moving slowly northward as a warm front over the High Plains later this afternoon -- in response to an approaching midlevel impulse and gradually deepening lee cyclone over southeast CO. Along/immediately south of this boundary (over the TX South Plains), deep/rich boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) is in place, with impressive moisture sampled by the 12Z MAF sounding (15.8 g/kg mean mixing ratio). Persistent cloud coverage will tend to shelter this moisture from diurnally driven boundary-layer mixing through the afternoon, while heating in cloud breaks will still yield strong surface-based instability (upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE). As a low-amplitude impulse and related jet streak advance east-northeastward across the central High Plains, peripheral large-scale ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorm development across east-central/southeast NM into the TX South Plains -- focused near the intersection of the northward-moving warm front and lee trough. Around 50-60 kt of effective shear and the modest large-scale ascent will favor discrete supercells, initially posing a risk of very large hail. However, a strengthening evening low-level jet atop the backed low-level flow near the boundary will support enlarging clockwise hodographs (300+ m2/s2 effective SRH). Given the deep/rich moisture and enhanced helicity, a focused corridor for tornadoes (some possibly strong) is evident over the TX South Plains -- where 10-percent tornado probabilities were added. Localized upscale growth into organized clusters is expected into western North Texas this evening, where a swath of severe wind is possible. Father south from the TX South Plains to parts of the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity, deep boundary-layer mixing amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints will contribute to moderate-strong surface-based instability, with a long (albeit straighter) hodograph away from the surface boundary. This will also support intense discrete/semi-discrete supercells, though the primary concern here will be very large hail (possibly 3+ inches).
SPC AC 051247 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...AND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains from southwestern Kansas into west Texas. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains... A modest MCS has persisted through the early morning, moving from the TX Panhandle into northwest TX. This MCS will likely continue southeastward into more of north TX over the next several hours. The downstream airmass is forecast to become increasingly unstable amid daytime heating, suggesting there is some potential for this system to strengthen once heating commences in earnest. However, vertical shear will remain modest, likely limiting the overall organization and intensity of this system and keeping the severe potential low. A greater severe potential is anticipated in the vicinity of the outflow associated with this early morning MCS. This outflow currently extends from the MCS westward across the TX South Plains into southeast NM. Some continued southward progress of this boundary is likely over the next few hours before it stalls. There is some potential for this boundary to then move back northward as an effective warm front during the late afternoon, but this depends on the coverage of any morning/early afternoon storms to its north. Given the mesoscale nature of that evolution, uncertainty is high on where this boundary will be by this afternoon. Even so, the general expectation is that this outflow will likely serve as the focus for robust convection later this afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 80s-lower 90s, west and south of the outflow. Strong buoyancy is anticipated across much of this region, particularly south of the outflow boundary where the highest temperatures and dewpoints are anticipated. Southeasterly low-level flow beneath the enhanced westerlies aloft will result in long hodographs with moderate to strong low-level veering. These environmental conditions will be very supportive of discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes. Hail probabilities were increased across far southeast NM into the TX South Plains where the highest supercell coverage is anticipated. There could be a corridor of higher tornado potential along the outflow boundary, but uncertainty on its location precludes introducing any high probabilities with this outlook. A discrete cell or two could also develop north of the outflow along a sharpening lee trough over eastern NM. Buoyancy will be slightly lower than areas farther south, but similar kinematic profiles will still support supercells capable of all severe hazards.
SPC AC 050551 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are the main hazards. Large to very large hail is possible over the southern High Plains. ...Southern Great/High Plains... A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. Large-scale outflow will trail in the wake of this MCS and modify to the north of it as diurnal heating ensues. Along and south of the boundary, a confined plume of moderate to large buoyancy is expected by late afternoon with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. North of it, more modest values are anticipated between the outflow and a quasi-stationary front. Scattered thunderstorms will once again develop along and to the cool side of the front over the Raton Mesa into south-central CO, with more isolated expected southward along the dryline to the Trans-Pecos. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, with strengthening of upper-level flow, is anticipated south of a shortwave impulse moving into the central High to Great Plains through Friday night. This setup should yield favorable hodograph elongation for a sustained, long-lived supercell or two evolving southeastward from southeast CO. While buoyancy will be more muted, it should be sufficient for a significant severe hail and brief tornado threat. A few supercells farther south may have a tendency to be more outflow-dominant per various CAM depictions, but will likewise contain sig-severe hail potential as well. The Raton Mesa vicinity convection should grow upscale into another MCS Friday night as storm-scale outflows consolidate and with strengthening of the southern High Plains low-level jet. Most guidance indicates a somewhat delayed/slightly weaker jet than on D1. This coupled with signals for negative low-level theta-e advection overnight, given the confined plume of rich low-level moisture along the prior outflow boundary, lowers confidence in highlighting greater coverage of both severe and sig severe wind with the MCS as it likely tracks into/across OK.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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