Mescalero Apache Indian Reservation.
Between Ruidoso And Cloudcroft, New Mexico.
Blof Updated At 10:49 AM MDT Thursday.
Blog Updated At 10:15 AM MDT Thursday.
Scattered Severe T-Storms Today Into Tonight!
Rich low-level Gulf of America moisture has surged westward across the eastern one-half of New Mexico this morning and is backed up against the east slopes of the mountains. Jal is reporting a dew point temperature of 71F at 7:30 AM, the Artesia Airport 70F, and the rest of southeastern New Mexico has dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 60's. This is about as high as our dew point temperatures get. And yes, it is a very muggy morning.
A surface low was located just east of El Paso, with the dryline extending north and south from it along the east slopes of the mountains. A cold front was draped across far southeastern New Mexico and West Texas, extending southeastward from the surface low.
A shortwave will swing across the region today, aiding in lift and instability in the atmosphere.
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to form along these boundaries this afternoon into tonight. There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today into this evening across the eastern one-half of the state, roughly from the mountains eastward out onto the plains. An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast across eastern Eddy and Chaves Counties, all of Lea County, Roosevelt County, and far southern Curry County, eastward into West Texas.
Some of these storms will be discrete and supercellular in nature and will be capable of producing all severe weather hazards, including: Large to very large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, locally heavy rainfall that may produce localized flash flooding, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. A few tornadoes will also be possible along and east of the dryline and the warm front as it stalls or moves slowly back northward over the area.
Clusters of multicelluar thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon and evening as they move into West Texas. Western and southern New Mexico west of the central mountain chain will remain dry. A few isolated showers and t-storms are possible across northern New Mexico today.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the eastern one-half of the state again on Friday and perhaps to a lesser degree on Saturday.
Then we dry out and heat up. Upper 90's are forecast for southeastern New Mexico on Friday, near 100 on Saturday, and the low to mid 100's on Sunday.
Yet another upper-level trough of low pressure approaches the region the first of next week, along with another backdoor cold front arriving on Monday. Once again, our chances for t-storms ramp up along and east of the mountains of the state.
Hopefully, we will have a more normal monsoon this year with normal to above normal summer rainfall across New Mexico and surrounding areas. Typically, our monsoon starts on June 15th and ends on September 30th.
At 7:36 AM MDT, Thursday, June 5, 2025.
Valid At Noon MDT Thursday.
Friday.
Saturday.
Sunday.
SPC AC 051630
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern and
central Plains into tonight. Several tornadoes (some possibly
strong), large to very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.
Severe gusts are also possible over parts of the Northeast this
afternoon.
...Southern High Plains...
Morning surface analysis depicts a convectively reinforced
quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across north-central TX
westward through the TX South Plains to southeast/east-central NM.
This boundary may have a tendency of moving slowly northward as a
warm front over the High Plains later this afternoon -- in response
to an approaching midlevel impulse and gradually deepening lee
cyclone over southeast CO. Along/immediately south of this boundary
(over the TX South Plains), deep/rich boundary-layer moisture (upper
60s/lower 70s dewpoints) is in place, with impressive moisture
sampled by the 12Z MAF sounding (15.8 g/kg mean mixing ratio).
Persistent cloud coverage will tend to shelter this moisture from
diurnally driven boundary-layer mixing through the afternoon, while
heating in cloud breaks will still yield strong surface-based
instability (upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE). As a low-amplitude
impulse and related jet streak advance east-northeastward across the
central High Plains, peripheral large-scale ascent will aid in
scattered thunderstorm development across east-central/southeast NM
into the TX South Plains -- focused near the intersection of the
northward-moving warm front and lee trough. Around 50-60 kt of
effective shear and the modest large-scale ascent will favor
discrete supercells, initially posing a risk of very large hail.
However, a strengthening evening low-level jet atop the backed
low-level flow near the boundary will support enlarging clockwise
hodographs (300+ m2/s2 effective SRH). Given the deep/rich moisture
and enhanced helicity, a focused corridor for tornadoes (some
possibly strong) is evident over the TX South Plains -- where
10-percent tornado probabilities were added. Localized upscale
growth into organized clusters is expected into western North Texas
this evening, where a swath of severe wind is possible.
Father south from the TX South Plains to parts of the TX Trans-Pecos
vicinity, deep boundary-layer mixing amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints
will contribute to moderate-strong surface-based instability, with a
long (albeit straighter) hodograph away from the surface boundary.
This will also support intense discrete/semi-discrete supercells,
though the primary concern here will be very large hail (possibly 3+
inches).
SPC AC 051247
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
SOUTHEAST NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...AND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CO
INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains
from southwestern Kansas into west Texas. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.
...Southern High Plains...
A modest MCS has persisted through the early morning, moving from
the TX Panhandle into northwest TX. This MCS will likely continue
southeastward into more of north TX over the next several hours. The
downstream airmass is forecast to become increasingly unstable amid
daytime heating, suggesting there is some potential for this system
to strengthen once heating commences in earnest. However, vertical
shear will remain modest, likely limiting the overall organization
and intensity of this system and keeping the severe potential low.
A greater severe potential is anticipated in the vicinity of the
outflow associated with this early morning MCS. This outflow
currently extends from the MCS westward across the TX South Plains
into southeast NM. Some continued southward progress of this
boundary is likely over the next few hours before it stalls. There
is some potential for this boundary to then move back northward as
an effective warm front during the late afternoon, but this depends
on the coverage of any morning/early afternoon storms to its north.
Given the mesoscale nature of that evolution, uncertainty is high on
where this boundary will be by this afternoon. Even so, the general
expectation is that this outflow will likely serve as the focus for
robust convection later this afternoon as temperatures warm into the
mid 80s-lower 90s, west and south of the outflow.
Strong buoyancy is anticipated across much of this region,
particularly south of the outflow boundary where the highest
temperatures and dewpoints are anticipated. Southeasterly low-level
flow beneath the enhanced westerlies aloft will result in long
hodographs with moderate to strong low-level veering. These
environmental conditions will be very supportive of discrete
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail,
severe wind gusts, and tornadoes. Hail probabilities were increased
across far southeast NM into the TX South Plains where the highest
supercell coverage is anticipated. There could be a corridor of
higher tornado potential along the outflow boundary, but uncertainty
on its location precludes introducing any high probabilities with
this outlook.
A discrete cell or two could also develop north of the outflow along
a sharpening lee trough over eastern NM. Buoyancy will be slightly
lower than areas farther south, but similar kinematic profiles will
still support supercells capable of all severe hazards.
SPC AC 050551
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are the main hazards.
Large to very large hail is possible over the southern High Plains.
...Southern Great/High Plains...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark
Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. Large-scale outflow will
trail in the wake of this MCS and modify to the north of it as
diurnal heating ensues. Along and south of the boundary, a confined
plume of moderate to large buoyancy is expected by late afternoon
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. North of it, more modest values are
anticipated between the outflow and a quasi-stationary front.
Scattered thunderstorms will once again develop along and to the
cool side of the front over the Raton Mesa into south-central CO,
with more isolated expected southward along the dryline to the
Trans-Pecos. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, with
strengthening of upper-level flow, is anticipated south of a
shortwave impulse moving into the central High to Great Plains
through Friday night. This setup should yield favorable hodograph
elongation for a sustained, long-lived supercell or two evolving
southeastward from southeast CO. While buoyancy will be more muted,
it should be sufficient for a significant severe hail and brief
tornado threat. A few supercells farther south may have a tendency
to be more outflow-dominant per various CAM depictions, but will
likewise contain sig-severe hail potential as well.
The Raton Mesa vicinity convection should grow upscale into another
MCS Friday night as storm-scale outflows consolidate and with
strengthening of the southern High Plains low-level jet. Most
guidance indicates a somewhat delayed/slightly weaker jet than on
D1. This coupled with signals for negative low-level theta-e
advection overnight, given the confined plume of rich low-level
moisture along the prior outflow boundary, lowers confidence in
highlighting greater coverage of both severe and sig severe wind
with the MCS as it likely tracks into/across OK.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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