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Connecting The Dots Between Solar Cycles/Volcano Activity & Their Role In Our Planets Weather & Climate Cycles.

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January 9, 2026. Stormy Winter Skies. West Of Hope, New Mexico.  Several years ago, during the middle of the very heated and controversial climate change propaganda and debates, a group of respected scientists publicly came out with this statement: "It's the sun, stupid." That may offend some, but to this day it remains one of my all-time favorite quotes.  The sun and its associated solar cycles drive the planet's climate and weather. Volcanoes also play a major role, and the sun plays a major role in how and when they erupt. When they reach the major or historical eruption stage, they alter the planets short term weather and long term climate cycles.  The solar cycles, especially the solar minima cycles and grand solar minimums have drastically altered our weather and climate throughout history. Most notably during the last Little Ice Age. Many believe we are due or overdue for another such event.  Add to this mix the sun's effects on the world's ocean temper...
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The Rains Are Ending & As The Heat Returns.

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June 6, 2025.
Developing Supercell.
Looking North From Lovington, NM. 

Say Goodbye To The Rain & Hello To The Heat.

Our recent stretch of wet and relatively cool weather was nice given the time of the year, but this is going away by the weekend. 

Overall, high temps across the state will average some 5 to 11 degrees above normal today into the first of next week. Highs across southern New Mexico and the southeastern plains will be in the 100 to 105 range Friday into next Tuesday.

Hit and miss thunderstorms will break out over the eastern one-half of the state today and Friday. A few of these may become marginally severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. 

From the central mountain chain westward, thunderstorm coverage will be more isolated and of the drier nature.  

As we march deeper into our meteorological summer, the overall weather pattern will shift towards a monsoonal one. If lucky, we will see an above-average rainfall pattern this year. If not, the drought will only get worse. 

Some improvements in our drought status have occurred with the recent rains. We still have a long way to go to end this drought, but progress is being made, albeit slowly, in some areas. Our annual summer monsoon typically begins around June 15th and ends by September 30th. 

See the Albuquerque National Weather Service's 2025 Monsoon Outlook video on their YouTube Video and PDF file below for more info on this situation. 






Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday, June 15, 2025.

Our old summertime friend, the Sonoran heat ridge, is forecast to return and take control of our weather for the near future. The models disagree somewhat on their strength and exact location, but overall, the rains are leaving, and the heat is on. 

NWS NDFD High Temperature Forecasts.

Today.


Friday.


Saturday.


Sunday.


Monday.


Tuesday.


Chaves County.


Eddy County.


Lea County.


Lincoln County.


Otero County.







New Mexico Seasonal Drought Outlook.


6-10 & 8-14 Day Temperature Outlooks.



6-10 & 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlooks.



384
FXUS64 KMAF 121132
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
632 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

- Low thunderstorm chances (10-20%) persist in the higher terrain
  of west Texas and southeast New Mexico Thursday and Friday.

- A hot and dry weather pattern takes shape this weekend into the
  middle part of next week with temperatures reaching near to
  above 100 degrees over much of the area.
783
FXUS65 KABQ 121130 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

- There is a minor risk of burn scar flash flooding this
  afternoon and early evening.

- Scattered showers and storms today may produce gusty outflow
  winds and brief heavy rain east of the central mountain chain.
  Gusty and dry storms are possible along and west of the central
  mountain chain today then over eastern New Mexico Friday.

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas
  Saturday through Monday as temperatures warm to the hottest
  levels so far this season. Major heat risk is possible for the
  southeast plains and the lower Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Rain chances were increased along the western fringes of the
moisture (Rio Grande Valley and adjacent mountains) for the
afternoon period in-line with recent hi-res guidance which shows
isolated gusty showers developing between 1PM and 3PM. Very little
rainfall is likely with his convection, but it may produce gusty
winds of 40mph+.

&&
532
FXUS64 KEPZ 121221
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
621 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms through Thursday
    favoring area mountains with gusty outflows into the lowlands.

 -  Seasonable temperatures Wednesday, with heat building Friday
    through the weekend. Hottest temperatures Sunday and Monday.

&&

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

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My Top 10 Most Popular Posts

Artesia, NM Mothership Supercell Thunderstorm. 9-17-2016.

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Blog Updated 9-19-2016 @ 6:31 PM MDT. Diane & I Chase A Monster Of A Supercell!  Saturday, Sept 17, 2016.  Courtesy Of Diane J. Malone. My Wife (Diane) And I Took Old Yo Crossing Rd. South Out Of Roswell And Finally Got Out In Front Of This Monster Of A Supercell Thunderstorm On St. Hwy 13. She Took This Photo Near Mile Marker 11. Pretty Much Describes Rural Southeastern New Mexico. 3:09 PM MDT: This Beast Had Multiple Wall Clouds That At Times Showed Slow Rotation And At Other Times Was Spinning Like A Top. This Was A Ground Hugger At Times As Well. Initially When This Storm Developed South Of Picacho It Was Showing A Northeastward Movement On Radar. That Didn't Last Long As It Intensified And Started Heading East Then Made A Right Turn (Right Mover) And Took Off To The Southeast. At Times Moving Southeastward At 15-20 MPH Then It Would Accelerating To 40 MPH.  3:47 PM MDT: We Are About 1 Mile West Of Hope In Western Eddy County On ...
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Monster Of A Snowstorm Coming This Christmas Weekend?

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New Mexico This Coming Christmas Weekend? Those of us who live in New Mexico have developed a unique sense of humor when it comes to our weather. I've often said that we live in a place where extremes more often than not are normal. Take for example the rest of this weeks forecast for Carlsbad depicted below. Latest NWS Forecast For Carlsbad, New Mexico. My high temperature here at our home yesterday was 74°F. Contrast that to what's coming this weekend...depicted below. Its not unusual at all to have high temps in the 70's or even the 80's ahead of a strong winter storm locally. We saw this with the major snowstorms in December 1987, December 1997, and February 2011, and with other strong winter storms too. Long Range Model Forecasts On Weekend Storm. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST European (ECMWF) 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 11AM MST Sunday, Dec ...
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Powerful Winter Storm Is Hammering New Mexico! Worst Is Yet To Come.

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Blog Updated At 9:57 PM MST. Courtesy Of Glen Brazell. Shared On Twitter By Kerry Jones. Nearly 30" The Ground In Ruidoso, NM. Downtown Ruidoso, New Mexico. Ruidoso Web Cam Snapshot At 1:54 PM MST This Afternoon. National Weather Service Watches & Warnings In Effect. As Of 5 AM MST Friday, December 28, 2018. Click On This Link To Open Up The Latest Updated Map. Then Once The Map Opens Up, Click Anywhere On The Map To Be Re-directed To Your Area Of Interest. The NWS Office That Has Forecast And Warning Responsibility For That Location Will Have The Latest Weather Information Posted On Their Web Page. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Analysis. Valid At 11 PM MST Thursday Evening. As of midnight last night a slow moving and powerful closed upper level low was located over northern Arizona. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Today.  This winter storm is forecast to continue sinking slowly ...
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25th Anniversary Of The Carlsbad, NM (May 31, 1991) Tornado Coming Up.

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Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT. Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them. On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with.  The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening. The Tornado's path is circled in red...
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Major Winter Storm May Paralyze/Bury Parts Of NM & Nearby Areas Tonight Into Wednesday!

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Winter Storm Watches & Warnings Are In Effect - Click On This Link For Additional Details. U.S. GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday. Today's (Sunday) noon mdt run of the GFS forecast model is just plain nuts. Its trend has been to produce heavier snowfall totals and aerial coverages with each new run over the past day. This has me worried. 19" for Roswell, 12" for Artesia, 15" for Clovis, 28" for the Fort Sumner area, and 17" for Corona! This would be wild in the dead of winter but is absolutely unheard of in the part of the world in October! The last time we saw something like this come to pass was the Blizzard of December 27, 28, 29th, 2015. Will history repeats itself? I hope not but I will admit that I am worried. My feeling is that we will see snowfall accumulations of around 6" to 12" in SE NM and 6" to 18" in the mountains.  GFS Freezing Rain Accumulation Forecast. Valid Tonight Through PM MDT Wednes...
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2011 Skywarn Spotter Training Classes & My Thoughts.

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Artesia, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class.  Midland National Weather Service Warning  Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper. Midland National Weather Service Warning  Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper. Roswell, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class. Albuquerque National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter & Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones. Summary. Our first Eddy County  Skywarn Spotter Training meeting kicked off in Artesia this past Monday night. A total of 16 people attended. This was down a little from the past couple of years. Our second class was held in Carlsbad Tuesday night and there were 17 people in attendance. This was about half as many people that attended last year. I will have to go back and check but there have been some 160 or so people in Eddy County sign up for our ...
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Tonight's GFS Is As Drunk As This Mornings ECMWF. Historic Snowstorm Next Weekend?

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GFS Drinking Same Kool-Aid As ECMWF? Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Surface Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Accumulated Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. U.S. GFS 10-Day Forecasts. Albuquerque, New Mexico. Clines Corners, New Mexico. Cannon Air Force Base - Clovis, New Mexico. Corona, New Mexico. Sierra Blanca Regional Airport - Ruidoso, New Mexico. Roswell, New Mexico. Artesia, New Mexico. Carlsbad, New Mexico. Hobbs, New Mexico. Guadalupe Pass, Texas. El Paso, Texas. Blog Updated @ 12:15 AM MST: Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Just took a look at the tonight's run of the European model which just came in. Its forecasting snowfall totals of 26" fo...
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Major Winter Storm To Hammer New Mexico & West Texas Thanksgiving Week!

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Blog Updated At (;15 AM MST Sunday, Nov 24th, 2019. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Analysis. At 11 PM MST Saturday Night. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid For 2 PM MST Tuesday. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid For 5 AM MST Thanksgiving Morning. A Thanksgiving To Remember! Thanksgiving week this year will be one to remember it appears. As of this Sunday morning a cutoff upper level low remains parked well southwest of San Diego, California. This storm will get kicked to the southeast, weaken, and eventually get absorbed by a strong upper level trough of low pressure diving southward out of the northern Rockies on Tuesday. By Thanksgiving a large, deep, and cold mid-upper level closed low is forecast to be centered near central California. The other models are coming more in line with the GFS and its forecasts but there still remain differences in the timing, strength, and location of the storms to affect our area next week. Surface M...
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Are We Fixing To Go From Drought To Flood In SE NM?

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Blog Updated At 1:45 PM MDT Saturday, May 19, 2018. May 24, 2013. Looking Back To The West Of Hope. Big Changes Coming Starting Tonight. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday, May 21, 2018. Surface Map Analysis. Valid At 6 AM MDT This Saturday Morning. Temperatures At 10 AM This Morning. Temperatures At 1 PM MDT This Afternoon. Now that's a stout cold front. Take a look at these temperatures as of 1 PM MDT this Saturday afternoon. As Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas climbs up into the 90's the plains of northeastern Colorado, most of Nebraska, Wyoming, and parts of Montana are in the 40's and 50's!  NWS MesoWest Reported Low Temperatures This Morning. Surface Map Forecast. Strong Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight. A strong cold front is forecast to move southward down the Eastern Plains of New Mexico late tonight into Sunday morning. Low temperatures across the plains ...
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Cloudcroft & Ruidoso, NM Seasonal Snowfall Totals.

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Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Oct 1st, 2019 - January 19th, 2020). January 11th, 2020. South Of Cloudcroft, New Mexico. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Cloudcroft, New Mexico 8,750'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Ruidoso, New Mexico 6,950'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. As a kid growing up in Artesia, New Mexico I always was fascinated by the snowfall in the Sacramento mountains. Especially in the Cloudcroft and Ruidoso areas. Many times Cloudcroft would see their first snowfall by Halloween. It was not unusual to see snow on the ground from around Thanksgiving through Easter in many of these years.  Sierra Blanca Peak (White Mountain or Old Baldy) west of Ruidoso more often than not was coated with snow from before Thanksgiving to after Easter as well.  If you have been thinking that it does not snow as much in the Sacramento mountains as i...
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My Snowfall Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

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This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely upon during severe weather. Do not rely solely on the Internet. Be weather-aware, plan ahead, have a backup plan, and be ready to act before severe weather strikes your location.