Nervously Watching Hurricane Manuel Moving Northward.



Hurricane Manuel.





 Total Rainfall Forecast Valid At 6 PM MDT This Evening.

This Mornings 12Z GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Friday, Sept 20, 2013.

Hurricanes are one of the most difficult meteorological phenomena that there is to predict. Currently Hurricane Manuel is moving inland and breaking up northward near the Baja Peninsula. This Hurricane is proving to one of those more difficult cyclones to predict when it comes to the computer forecast models. 

I am noticing a subtle shift in its forecast track by the NHC further to the west and north than has been predicted the past couple of days. Should this trend continue today into tomorrow this potentially could be some bad news for us here in southeastern New Mexico. What we do not need right now is more heavy rains that may produce additional flash flooding from this dying Hurricane! 

The models are having a difficult time in trying to resolve just exactly where Manuel's remnant moisture is going to go. As of 10:00 AM MDT the Midland National Weather Service Forecast Office is continuing its Flash Flood Watch for much of west Texas. At this time they are not including Eddy, Lea and Culberson Counties. 

Should the remnant tropical moisture from the dying Hurricane Manuel track further to the west and north than is currently being forecast by the models, and ends up in southeastern New Mexico, then we very well may be facing another Flash Flood threat later today into Friday. This situation could also be potentially be further aggravated by an approaching cold front from the north due to arrive in the local area tomorrow. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

 My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.

Comments

Current NWS Watches/Warnings In Effect

New Mexico

Chaves County Plains & Mtn's

Eddy County

Culberson County

Lea County

Lincoln County

Otero County

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Overview

Current Watches In Effect

SPC Mesoscale Discussions

NWS Regional Radar

NWS Regional Radar

NWS Midland Radar

Cannon AFB Radar

NWS Albuquerque Radar

Holloman AFB Radar

NWS El Paso Radar

NWS Lubbock Radar

GOES-East - Sector view: Southern Rockies - GEOColor

Current US Temps

Current US Wind Chill/Heat Index Temperatures

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions are expected today! Please be smart and try to avoid outdoor burning and starting campfires this Memorial Day weekend. Any new fire starts will spread rapidly. It is extremely important today to follow safety protocols and regulations issued by local authorities, including any evacuation orders. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged and potentially illegal and very dangerous. Your neighbors lives and livelihood may be affected by your actions.

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS El Paso Regional Forecast

NWS El Paso Regional Forecast

NWS El Paso Regional Forecast

NWS El Paso Regional Forecast

NWS El Paso Regional Forecast

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecast

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecast.

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecast

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecasts

NWS Forecast High Temps Today

NWS Forecast Low Temps Tonight

24-Hour Maximum Heat Index Temperature Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

NWS Midland Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall