Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Is This Real Snow That's Coming Or Just An April Fool's Snow?



Come Friday night into Sunday this will be what many New Mexicans and some Texans will be saying. By Monday many from New Mexico northeast to the Great Lakes will also be parroting this statement. 

Deep-Strong-Cold Upper Level Storm Is Coming South...But Just How Far South? Unusually Cold Temps & Snow Coming With It!


Valid At 6 PM MDT Saturday.

Wow just simply wow! This storm promises to be a whopper and a shocker. As it digs south into New Mexico Friday into Sunday a variety of wild spring weather will break out across the region. Ranging from High Winds and more Blowing Dust on Thursday, along with Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions for starters. On Friday Severe Thunderstorms producing large hail, damaging winds, flooding rains, and tornadoes will hound folks from Texas northeast to Ohio. And again on Saturday and a little further east and south. 

Meanwhile here in the Land of Enchantment our weather won't be so enchanting this this weekend. After tomorrows winds and blowing dust comes big changes. These changes include much colder temperatures behind a strong cold front and snow for many of us in the northern and eastern one half of the state. We may see some rain showers and thunderstorms here in Southeastern New Mexico Friday night into Saturday.

How much snow falls and where is still somewhat in question as of this writing (5 PM MDT Wednesday). Heavy snow is a good possibility across northern areas of the state including the Northeastern plains. The models are hinting that snow may work its way as far south as the Sacramento Mountains and the Clovis/Portales areas.

GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Saturday.

Canadian (GEM) Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday.

GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday. 

GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Saturday.

I think that the models are too warm in their forecasts of our high and low temperatures this weekend. Saturday and Sunday may very well turn out to be rather cold and raw. I'm thinking I may get to fire up the ol fireplace again this weekend too.

GFS Forecast Low Temperatures.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Sunday.


Valid Friday.

This storm has the potential to produce a significant amount of severe weather from Friday into Sunday so stay informed if you live in any of these threatened areas. 

How Far South Does This Storm Dig?

Current model trends are to dig this storm further south but just how far south it will come is uncertain right now. Another 50 to 100 miles to the south and there is a reasonable chance that parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas could see some of that white stuff fall from the sky. Right now many areas of northern, central, and eastern New Mexico are forecast to drop below freezing Friday night into Sunday morning as far as overnight low temps are concerned. Some locals will even see a hard freeze. I suspect that parts of Southeastern New Mexico will also seeing freezing temps by Saturday and Sunday morning too. More on all of this tomorrow and Friday.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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