(Issued At 10:30 AM MDT This Morning).
The threat for severe thunderstorms across Eastern and Southeastern New Mexico and parts of West Texas has increased this morning. Therefore the NWS SPC has upgraded the local area into a Slight Risk Category versus a Marginal Risk Category issued earlier this morning.
Large hail (Quarter size or larger), damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding will be possible with any severe thunderstorm that forms this afternoon and evening.
An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out late this afternoon especially with any discrete supercell thunderstorm that forms along and east of the dryline!
NWS SPC Outlook Update:
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...AND ALSO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong to damaging winds will be possible late this afternoon and evening across the central and southern High Plains. ...Central/southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... Modest southwesterly flow aloft will gradually overspread the High Plains through the period on the southeast periphery of a larger-scale trough moving eastward from the Great Basin/northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture return is underway in response to weak lee troughing, and regional 12z soundings revealed an elevated mixed layer plume atop the returning moisture (boundary layer dewpoints 56-60 F). Afternoon surface temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s will erode convective inhibition and contribute to a corridor of moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) east of the lee trough/dryline. Forcing for ascent will be somewhat nebulous today along the dryline, with perhaps a subtle embedded speed max ejecting northeastward from AZ/NM. Convective initiation will largely rely on mesoscale ascent along the dryline from the southwest NE triple point southward into west TX. Widely-scattered storm development expected after 21z, and a gradual increase in deep-layer and low-level shear by this evening will support some supercell structures. High-level flow is stronger farther south, and may support more persistent/discrete cells in the vicinity of the Pecos Valley, which has been added to the Slight Risk area. Otherwise, convection is expected to be largely diurnal and should weaken by late evening as convective inhibition increases. Some elevated convection may form and persist in a strengthening warm-advection regime across NE overnight. ..Thompson/Dial.. 04/14/2017 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1733Z (11:33AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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