Thunderstorms Return This Week - But Some Will be Severe!

Its That Time Of The Year Again - Severe T-Storms Possible This Week.

Surface Map Analysis.

(Valid At 9 AM MDT Sunday, April 9, 2017).

A Pacific cold front was sweeping eastward across New Mexico this Sunday morning producing gusty southwesterly to westerly winds ahead of and behind the frontal boundary. These winds were gusting between 35-55 mph across the Southeastern plains and the mountains. 

After seeing our high temps today climb up into the 80's across the local area Monday through Wednesday will be slightly cooler with highs ranging from the mid 70's to near 80.

More importantly though will be the return of low level Gulf of Mexico moisture as the dryline backs west this upcoming week. Dew point temperatures across the local area today will be in the single digits. By Tuesday we will see our dew point temperatures climb up into the low 50's and by Wednesday our dew points will be in the 55 to 60 range.

Combine this with surface based cape values increasing to 1,500 to 2,000 j/kg by Tuesday night and our chances for thunderstorms will increase as several short waves sweep across the area in the upper level southwesterly flow aloft. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable Tuesday into Thursday supporting the possibility of a few Supercell Thunderstorms.

GFS Forecast Position Of The Dryline.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday.

Valid At 6 PM Monday.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

GFS Surface Based Cape Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday.

Valid At 6 PM Monday.

Valid At 6 PM Tuesday.

Valid At 6 PM Wednesday.

Severe T-Storms Possible Tuesday - Thursday. 

NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook.

(Monday).

Although the good news is that it appears that most of us will have a decent shot at getting wet this upcoming week...it will come with a price. Nothing unusual about this given that we are entering our severe weather season. Severe thunderstorms can and have happened every month of the year locally and typically the heart of our season runs from mid May through mid June. 

At this time the best chances for severe weather in Southeastern New Mexico appear to be from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, and possibly through Friday.

A thunderstorm is characterized as being severe when it produces the following:

A tornado.

Surface wind gusts of 50 knots or 58 mph or higher.

Hail the size of a quarter (1.00") or greater in diameter. 

Severe thunderstorms can and often do produce all of these also with heavy rains that lead to localized flash flooding. Not to mention deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes.
                                  

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!