T-Storms After Midnight/A Few May Be Severe - Severe T-Storms Wednesday More Widespread!

(Late Tonight Into Wednesday Morning).

(Wednesday Into Wednesday Evening).

(Wednesday Into Wednesday Night).

(Late Tonight Into Wednesday Morning).

(Tonight Into Wednesday).

(Valid From 4 PM MDT Today Through 6 PM MDT Thursday).

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Don't Be Surprised If It Gets A Tad Noisy Later Tonight.

Low level moisture has returned from the Gulf of Mexico via southeasterly winds today across the area. Dew point temperatures have risen from the single digits yesterday to the 40's and 50's late this afternoon across Southern and Southeastern New Mexico as well as across West Texas. Usually this time of the year you need to see your dew point temperature climb up to 50ยบ or high for a decent shot at thunderstorms.

Several disturbances will zip by overhead in the southwesterly flow aloft tonight into Wednesday. These will help to destabilize the atmosphere and provide the necessary lift to initially fire up thunderstorms late tonight into Friday. Thunderstorms are forecast to break out over parts of Southern New Mexico after midnight and then move northeastward/develop into Southeastern New Mexico roughly around 3 AM or later. 

Surface based cape values are forecast to be around 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg tonight and 2,000+ j/kg Wednesday over Southeastern New Mexico. Lifted Indexes are forecast to drop down to around -5 with decent directional and speed shear in the winds aloft later tonight into Wednesday night. The dryline will remain west of the mountains tonight into late Wednesday.

Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible late tonight into Wednesday morning across the local area. Depending upon how much clearing takes place Wednesday and how soon will determine the magnitude of the severe weather outbreak. The earlier the morning thunderstorms clear out as well as the low level cloud cover the better the chances for additional severe thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon and evening due to increased instability of the atmosphere due to the sunshine. 

Large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds gusts will be the primary severe weather threats late tonight. Any discrete supercell thunderstorm that manages to ignite Wednesday will have the potential to produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, deadly cloud to ground lighting, locally heavy rainfall and possibly localized flash flooding...and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes. 

A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) or a large cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to develop over the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Should this occur then a transition to more of a damaging thunderstorm wind gust event and heavy rain event may take shape. 

Anyway the rain most certainly will be a welcome site in this dry and thirsty land! 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!


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