Marginal Risk For Severe T-Storms Today In SE NM.

Blog Updated At 3:07 PM MDT Friday, April 14, 2017.

Sierra Blanca, Texas In Hudspeth County About 65 Miles Southeast Of El Paso Wednesday Afternoon.
 Photos Are Courtesy Of Mr. Marty Bustamante.

And The El Paso NWS Facebook Page.

Severe weather can happen any month of the year. What makes this past Wednesday's outbreak a little unusual was that not only did it occur over Southeastern New Mexico, but also across parts of Southern New Mexico, and far West Texas. Not that we don't get severe weather, its just that this is type of fairly widespread event usually does not occur this early in the season. We would expect to see something of this magnitude more so in May or June. Which just proves that sometimes severe weather happens locally outside of the normal expected times of the year, and outside of the so called normally severe prone areas. 

Marginal Risk For Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon.

NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook Today.

Parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas are under A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. A Slight Risk Category extends roughly from the Clovis area northeastward into Northwestern Kansas. 

A few isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across the local area this afternoon. Thunderstorm types will be of the multicellular mode and maybe an isolated supercell thunderstorm or two. Supercells will be a little more common in the Slight Risk area to our northeast. 

Locally large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph will be possible with any severe thunderstorm that develops this afternoon and early evening. At this time a widespread outbreak is not anticipated over Southeastern New Mexico. 

WRF-NAM Surface Dew Point Temperature Forecast.

Valid At 3 PM MDT This Afternoon.

Model forecasts for this afternoon have the dryline backed west into Southeastern New Mexico but it is forecast to mix eastward with time. Just how far east it does will help determine just where any severe thunderstorm will develop. 

WRF-NAM Surface Based Cape Forecast.

Valid At 3 PM MDT This Afternoon. 

Surface based cape values will be decent this afternoon along with steep mid-level lapse rates. A low-level jet is forecast to develop around sunset that this will help enhance any thunderstorms that form. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!