January 9, 2026. Stormy Winter Skies. West Of Hope, New Mexico. Several years ago, during the middle of the very heated and controversial climate change propaganda and debates, a group of respected scientists publicly came out with this statement: "It's the sun, stupid." That may offend some, but to this day it remains one of my all-time favorite quotes. The sun and its associated solar cycles drive the planet's climate and weather. Volcanoes also play a major role, and the sun plays a major role in how and when they erupt. When they reach the major or historical eruption stage, they alter the planets short term weather and long term climate cycles. The solar cycles, especially the solar minima cycles and grand solar minimums have drastically altered our weather and climate throughout history. Most notably during the last Little Ice Age. Many believe we are due or overdue for another such event. Add to this mix the sun's effects on the world's ocean temper...
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Our Weekend Weather forecast Has Lucy Upset - Many Of You Will Be Too!
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Blog Updated At 6:18 PM MDT Thursday.
Lucy will have a fan club for sure come tomorrow night into Sunday. Many New Mexicans undoubtedly will agree with her sentiment. My wife chief among them...who really really hates snow. Of course I'm simply tickled pink at Mother Nature's latest set of antics she is gearing up to unleash upon New Mexico and surrounding areas this weekend. To put this upcoming event into perspective consider that at the time I'm writing this blog its 91ºF in Carlsbad, New Mexico.
Cold Deep Closed Low Set To Invade From The North.
First lets take a look upstairs at the 500 millibar level or roughly at 18,000' above mean sea level. This typically is considered the middle of the atmosphere and we look to find the storm track. All three of the computer forecast models above are pretty much in agreement as far as the placement of the cold, deep, and strong upper level low come sunrise Saturday morning. During the day into Saturday night and Sunday is where these models and others start to differ on the track and timing of the storm. Remember the further west and south this cold upper level storm dives into the state will play a big role in how far south the snow comes and how much falls.
I've chosen this model's surface map forecast to "generally" show where snow will be falling in the area on Saturday. First a unusually strong and cold (for this time of the year) arctic cold front will slice its way southward through the Eastern Plains of New Mexico during the daytime Saturday. This forecast could easily change as far as where snow falls during the daylight hours Saturday. The exact track of the upper level storm to our north (how far west and south does it dig during the day Saturday), and how soon will the very cold air at the surface rush southward, and how far before sunset will all factor in on this.
A Worst Case Scenario Forecast Which May - Or May Not Occur.
As you can easily see the models are all over the place with how much snow falls and where. Which is fairly common with a storm of this magnitude, strength, and time of the year. So use these only as a rough guide and be aware that these forecasts will change later tonight and on Saturday.
Please visit theAlbuquerque National Weather Service Web Page for the latest updates on the anticipated snowfall forecasts and impacts depicted above as conditions and forecasts change tonight into Saturday.
As far as Southeastern New Mexico is concerned it appears at this time (5:30 PM MST Thursday afternoon) that the Roswell area could very well see snowflakes flying in the wind Saturday night. Light Accumulations of snowfall look possible in the Clovis and Portales areas. The Sacramento and Capitan Mountains may also see accumulating snowfall (1"-3" maybe more at the higher elevations). I suspect that this may also happen in the Guadalupes too. The jury is still out across Eddy and Lea Counties. For now it appears that thunderstorms with rain showers are possible tomorrow night and Saturday...I'm not so sure we will see snow just yet. However there is that remote possibility Saturday night.
Again we are back to the "how far south does the upper level storm dig and how cold and how soon" equation to answer my header question above. Here I've chosen the Canadian models temperature forecasts which of the models in question is the "worst case scenario". Depending upon the timing of the arrival of the coldest air behind the southward moving cold front on Saturday we could see our high temperatures in Southeastern New Mexico Saturday range from the 70's to the 40's. Notice that this model has temperatures Saturday in the Clovis/Portales area near freezing by sunset and near 40 in Roswell! Combine this with north to northeasterly winds gusting up into the 30-50 mph range and Lucy is really going to be upset and so will many of you. Sorry but this is part of living in New Mexico.
Unfortunately many of New Mexico's communities will experience a freeze this weekend and some a hard freeze. Don't be surprised come Sunday morning that many of us in Southeastern New Mexico also dip down to freezing or below. A hard freeze looks likely in the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe Mountains.
Severe Thunderstorms Are Forecast From Texas Northeastward Into Indiana Friday And Friday Night. With Round Two Saturday Into Saturday Night. Please Visit The Storm Prediction Centers Web Page For More Details On This Via This Link. And Visit The National Weather Service Office Nearest You For All Of Your Latest Local Forecasts Via This Link.
Researching the climate books this afternoon we find that Roswell has dropped down to 32ºF as late as May 25th in 1913. Artesia has been as low as 31ºF on May 13th in 1933. Artesia also dropped down to 33ºF on May 28th in 1929. Carlsbad has been as low as 31ºF on May 7 in 1917.
Roswell has recorded measureable snowfall (0.2") as late as May 3rd in 1935. Artesia recorded 2.2" of snowfall on April 12th, 1980. Cloudcroft has recorded as much as 8.0" of snowfall as late as May 3rd, 1980 with lighter amounts into June.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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Blog Updated 9-19-2016 @ 6:31 PM MDT. Diane & I Chase A Monster Of A Supercell! Saturday, Sept 17, 2016. Courtesy Of Diane J. Malone. My Wife (Diane) And I Took Old Yo Crossing Rd. South Out Of Roswell And Finally Got Out In Front Of This Monster Of A Supercell Thunderstorm On St. Hwy 13. She Took This Photo Near Mile Marker 11. Pretty Much Describes Rural Southeastern New Mexico. 3:09 PM MDT: This Beast Had Multiple Wall Clouds That At Times Showed Slow Rotation And At Other Times Was Spinning Like A Top. This Was A Ground Hugger At Times As Well. Initially When This Storm Developed South Of Picacho It Was Showing A Northeastward Movement On Radar. That Didn't Last Long As It Intensified And Started Heading East Then Made A Right Turn (Right Mover) And Took Off To The Southeast. At Times Moving Southeastward At 15-20 MPH Then It Would Accelerating To 40 MPH. 3:47 PM MDT: We Are About 1 Mile West Of Hope In Western Eddy County On ...
New Mexico This Coming Christmas Weekend? Those of us who live in New Mexico have developed a unique sense of humor when it comes to our weather. I've often said that we live in a place where extremes more often than not are normal. Take for example the rest of this weeks forecast for Carlsbad depicted below. Latest NWS Forecast For Carlsbad, New Mexico. My high temperature here at our home yesterday was 74°F. Contrast that to what's coming this weekend...depicted below. Its not unusual at all to have high temps in the 70's or even the 80's ahead of a strong winter storm locally. We saw this with the major snowstorms in December 1987, December 1997, and February 2011, and with other strong winter storms too. Long Range Model Forecasts On Weekend Storm. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST European (ECMWF) 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 11AM MST Sunday, Dec ...
Blog Updated At 9:57 PM MST. Courtesy Of Glen Brazell. Shared On Twitter By Kerry Jones. Nearly 30" The Ground In Ruidoso, NM. Downtown Ruidoso, New Mexico. Ruidoso Web Cam Snapshot At 1:54 PM MST This Afternoon. National Weather Service Watches & Warnings In Effect. As Of 5 AM MST Friday, December 28, 2018. Click On This Link To Open Up The Latest Updated Map. Then Once The Map Opens Up, Click Anywhere On The Map To Be Re-directed To Your Area Of Interest. The NWS Office That Has Forecast And Warning Responsibility For That Location Will Have The Latest Weather Information Posted On Their Web Page. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Analysis. Valid At 11 PM MST Thursday Evening. As of midnight last night a slow moving and powerful closed upper level low was located over northern Arizona. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Today. This winter storm is forecast to continue sinking slowly ...
Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT. Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them. On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with. The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening. The Tornado's path is circled in red...
Winter Storm Watches & Warnings Are In Effect - Click On This Link For Additional Details. U.S. GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday. Today's (Sunday) noon mdt run of the GFS forecast model is just plain nuts. Its trend has been to produce heavier snowfall totals and aerial coverages with each new run over the past day. This has me worried. 19" for Roswell, 12" for Artesia, 15" for Clovis, 28" for the Fort Sumner area, and 17" for Corona! This would be wild in the dead of winter but is absolutely unheard of in the part of the world in October! The last time we saw something like this come to pass was the Blizzard of December 27, 28, 29th, 2015. Will history repeats itself? I hope not but I will admit that I am worried. My feeling is that we will see snowfall accumulations of around 6" to 12" in SE NM and 6" to 18" in the mountains. GFS Freezing Rain Accumulation Forecast. Valid Tonight Through PM MDT Wednes...
Artesia, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class. Midland National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper. Midland National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper. Roswell, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class. Albuquerque National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter & Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones. Summary. Our first Eddy County Skywarn Spotter Training meeting kicked off in Artesia this past Monday night. A total of 16 people attended. This was down a little from the past couple of years. Our second class was held in Carlsbad Tuesday night and there were 17 people in attendance. This was about half as many people that attended last year. I will have to go back and check but there have been some 160 or so people in Eddy County sign up for our ...
GFS Drinking Same Kool-Aid As ECMWF? Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Surface Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Accumulated Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. U.S. GFS 10-Day Forecasts. Albuquerque, New Mexico. Clines Corners, New Mexico. Cannon Air Force Base - Clovis, New Mexico. Corona, New Mexico. Sierra Blanca Regional Airport - Ruidoso, New Mexico. Roswell, New Mexico. Artesia, New Mexico. Carlsbad, New Mexico. Hobbs, New Mexico. Guadalupe Pass, Texas. El Paso, Texas. Blog Updated @ 12:15 AM MST: Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Just took a look at the tonight's run of the European model which just came in. Its forecasting snowfall totals of 26" fo...
Blog Updated At (;15 AM MST Sunday, Nov 24th, 2019. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Analysis. At 11 PM MST Saturday Night. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid For 2 PM MST Tuesday. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid For 5 AM MST Thanksgiving Morning. A Thanksgiving To Remember! Thanksgiving week this year will be one to remember it appears. As of this Sunday morning a cutoff upper level low remains parked well southwest of San Diego, California. This storm will get kicked to the southeast, weaken, and eventually get absorbed by a strong upper level trough of low pressure diving southward out of the northern Rockies on Tuesday. By Thanksgiving a large, deep, and cold mid-upper level closed low is forecast to be centered near central California. The other models are coming more in line with the GFS and its forecasts but there still remain differences in the timing, strength, and location of the storms to affect our area next week. Surface M...
Blog Updated At 1:45 PM MDT Saturday, May 19, 2018. May 24, 2013. Looking Back To The West Of Hope. Big Changes Coming Starting Tonight. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday, May 21, 2018. Surface Map Analysis. Valid At 6 AM MDT This Saturday Morning. Temperatures At 10 AM This Morning. Temperatures At 1 PM MDT This Afternoon. Now that's a stout cold front. Take a look at these temperatures as of 1 PM MDT this Saturday afternoon. As Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas climbs up into the 90's the plains of northeastern Colorado, most of Nebraska, Wyoming, and parts of Montana are in the 40's and 50's! NWS MesoWest Reported Low Temperatures This Morning. Surface Map Forecast. Strong Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight. A strong cold front is forecast to move southward down the Eastern Plains of New Mexico late tonight into Sunday morning. Low temperatures across the plains ...
Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Oct 1st, 2019 - January 19th, 2020). January 11th, 2020. South Of Cloudcroft, New Mexico. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Cloudcroft, New Mexico 8,750'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Ruidoso, New Mexico 6,950'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. As a kid growing up in Artesia, New Mexico I always was fascinated by the snowfall in the Sacramento mountains. Especially in the Cloudcroft and Ruidoso areas. Many times Cloudcroft would see their first snowfall by Halloween. It was not unusual to see snow on the ground from around Thanksgiving through Easter in many of these years. Sierra Blanca Peak (White Mountain or Old Baldy) west of Ruidoso more often than not was coated with snow from before Thanksgiving to after Easter as well. If you have been thinking that it does not snow as much in the Sacramento mountains as i...
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My Precipitation Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad
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