Second Major Winter Storm In A Week To Hammer New Mexico!
Blog Updated At 3:59 PM MST.
January 11th, 2020.
Cloudcroft Tunnel On US Hwy 82.
Second Winter Storm In A Week To Impact New Mexico.
Valid At 11 PM MST Tonight.
A cold front has worked its way southward through the local area overnight. After seeing high temperatures in the 70's Sunday afternoon, a much cooler air mass will overspread the area today with highs only in the 50's.
A secondary and stronger surge of colder air will move into the area this evening. Tuesday's highs won't get much above freezing. Low level easterly up-slope flow will increase the moisture values at and just above the surface today into Tuesday behind the front. Meanwhile, subtropical mid and high-level moisture will continue streaming overhead from the southwest from off of the Eastern Pacific.
Valid At 11 PM MST Sunday Night.
GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecasts.
Valid At 5 PM MST Today.
Valid At 5 PM MST Tuesday.
Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday.
Major Winter Storm Headed For The Area.
A closed mid and upper-level low located just off the coast of San Diego, California early this morning will drop slowly southeastward today into Tuesday. Tuesday night the low will begin to lift northeastward and by sunrise Wednesday morning it is forecast to be located overhead over Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas.
Colder air aloft associated with this storm combined with a 120-knot jet stream will add lift and instability to the area increasing our chances for rain, sleet, snow, and pockets of freezing rain.
NWS Midland Snowfall Forecast.
Above 7500': 6-12"
6000-7500': 2-6"
5000-6000': 1-2"
Below 5000': 0-1"
NWS Midland Snowfall Forecast.
We have another winter storm on its way beginning this evening and lasting into Wednesday Morning. Expect more mountain snows and lowland rains. We could even see some thunderstorms this evening.
Today.
Tuesday.
Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Wednesday.
GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecasts.
Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Wednesday.
NAM 3KM Storm Total Freezing Rain Forecasts.
Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Wednesday.
NAM 3KM Precipitation Type Forecasts.
NAM 3KM Precipitation Type Forecasts.
Valid At 6 AM MST Tuesday Morning.
Today's 11 AM MST (Monday) NAM 3K precipitation type forecast calls for rain to change over to a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow by around sunrise Tuesday morning. This area of mixed precipitation will move very slowly southward during the day Tuesday as colder air behind a back door cold front filters into the area. By Tuesday afternoon we should see all snow in the local area.
(Click On The Link Above For The Latest Updated Information).
Heavy Snow, Blowing Snow, Drifting Snow To Make Travel Dangerous And Difficult.
As the mid-upper level closed low to our west draws closer tonight into Tuesday the atmosphere is forecast to cool through the column from the surface to the mid-levels. With the increase in low and mid-level moisture, our chances for seeing measurable snow will be on the increase beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday morning.
Pockets of light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are possible across parts of northern Lea County and perhaps far eastern Chaves County this morning. This will end later today.
The exact track of the closed mid-upper level low will help determine who gets the heaviest snowfall across the Eastern and Southeastern Plains of New Mexico, and across West Texas. If the low moves 50 to 100 miles further south than is currently forecast then we will get more snow locally than is currently forecast. This will also be true if it stalls to our southwest or south somewhat.
If it lifts further northward than is currently forecast then it will take the heaviest snows north with it, Be prepared for the possibility of changes to our local forecasts, watches, and warnings later today.
Rain showers will be on the increase tonight across the local area. Snow will fall in the mountains will falling snow levels late tonight into Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible tonight across the local area. Some thunderstorms across southern New Mexico and the El Paso and Las Cruces areas could be marginally severe and produce hail and strong winds.
A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Eddy, Northern and Central Lea Counties, and the Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy and Culberson Counties from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Snow totals for the Artesia, Hope, Loco Hills, Lakewood/Seven Rivers, Carlsbad, Whites City, Loving, Queen, and Malaga areas are currently forecast to range from 1" to 4". Locally higher totals will be possible in and near the mountains and foothills and with any banding or thundersnow that occurs. Northerly winds gusting at times up to 35 mph will create areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Very low visibilities from the heavy snow, blowing snow, fog, and freezing fog along with snow-packed and icy roadways will make travel very dangerous. Some road closures may occur during this impending Winter Storm.
A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Chaves County from 11 PM tonight through 11 PM Tuesday. Snow totals for the Roswell, Dexter, Hagerman, and Lake Arthur areas are currently forecast to range from 4" to 7". Northerly winds gusting at times up to 35 mph will create areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Very low visibilities from the heavy snow, blowing snow, fog, and freezing fog along with snow-packed and icy roadways will make travel very dangerous. Some road closures may occur during this impending Winter Storm.
Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Weather Advisory are in effect for Lincoln County from 11 PM tonight through 11 PM Tuesday. Snow totals for the Picacho, Hondo, Ruidoso, Capitan, and Alto areas are currently forecast to range from 3" to 6" below 7,500'. Above 7,500' 6" to 12" are forecast with locally heavier totals across the higher peaks and mountain tops. Ski Apache could see as much as 15" to 18" of new snow. Northerly winds gusting at times up to 35 mph will create areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Very low visibilities from the heavy snow, blowing snow, fog, and freezing fog along with snow-packed and icy roadways will make travel very dangerous. Some road closures may occur during this impending Winter Storm.
A Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Weather Advisory are in effect for Otero County from 9 PM this evening through 5 AM Wednesday. Snow totals for the Mayhill, Cloudcroft, Weed/Sacramento, Timberon, Mountain Park/High Rolls areas are currently forecast to range from 3" to 6" below 7,500'. Above 7,500' 6" to 12" are forecast with locally heavier totals across the higher peaks and mountain tops. Northerly winds gusting at times up to 35 mph will create areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Very low visibilities from the heavy snow, blowing snow, fog, and freezing fog along with snow-packed and icy roadways will make travel very dangerous. Some road closures may occur during this impending Winter Storm.
A light mix of rain and freezing rain is possible across parts of northern Lea County this morning. Later today this should change back to all rain. Light rain is forecast off and on at times across the rest of the local area today.
Rain will change over to a mix of rain and snow tonight, then all snow by late tonight into early Tuesday. Current forecasts call for only light accumulations of snow across Eddy and Lea Counties as of early this morning. Generally an inch or less.
However, this may be subject to change as additional information on the storm becomes available later today. Local residents should be alert and prepared for the possibility of heavier snowfall than currently is forecast tonight into Wednesday morning. Should this occur then we would end up having the same winter storm impacts as mentioned above on local roadways and highways.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!
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