Severe T-Storms Northwestern NM Thursday & Friday - Central & Eastern NM Saturday.
August 17, 2025.
Northeast Of Cloudcroft, NM.
Blog Updated At 3:30 PM MDT Thursday, Sept 11, 2025.
Fall in New Mexico is a fun and beautiful time of the year. Weather-wise, we are slowly easing into it as the summer death ridge gets weaker with time and as more upper-level lows slam into it. Gradually, our daytime high temps are getting cooler, and so are our nights.
It is bowling ball season once again as strong short-wave troughs of low pressure dive southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska into the Rockies and Great Basin. A closed mid-upper level low centered near Sacramento, California, early this morning will continue moving southeast today into Saturday. By Sunday, it will begin to open up, weaken somewhat as it swings across northern New Mexico and Central Colorado.
Disturbances aloft will rotate across the region today into the weekend. Southwesterly flow aloft will drag monsoonal moisture back into the state today, mainly into the western half of the state, and on Friday, before spreading eastward on Sunday.
A Pacific cold front will sweep eastward across the state Saturday, bringing cooler temps behind it. Some of our northern mountain higher communities will see their first freeze of the season Saturday night and a hard freeze Sunday night, and freezing temps again next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Scattered to numerous showers and t-storms will favor the continental divide westward today and tonight, then the continental divide eastward Friday through Saturday night. Locally heavy t-storm rainfall may produce flash flooding downstream of the state's Burn Scars, especially if multiple rounds of t-storms (training t-storms) occur over the same areas. Isolated and localized flash flooding will be possible outside of the Burn Scar areas, especially across parts of northwestern and northern New Mexico, Friday into Friday evening. The highest risk of this occurring will be Friday afternoon into Friday night. Rainfall rates from the more robust and stronger t-storms may approach 2" per hour or more.
Marginally severe t-storms will be possible in western areas of the state this afternoon and evening, and over central and western areas Friday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe t-storms may also occur along and east of the central mountain chain on Saturday afternoon and evening.
The dryline is expected to set up camp across southeastern New Mexico on Sunday; therefore, a few scattered t-storms may develop along and east of it. Some of these could be strong to potentially marginally severe.
Our best chances of getting wet across the southeastern plains will be Friday into Saturday night, when our chances for measurable rainfall jump up into the 20% to 50% range. Scattered t-storms will be possible during this time frame.
For the Sacramento and Capitan mountains, a few hit-and-miss t-storms will be possible today, with activity increasing Friday into Saturday night. By Saturday, your chances for measurable rainfall increase into the 60% to 80% range. Locally heavy rainfall from training t-storms may produce a flash flood threat Friday into Saturday night, especially over and downstream of the Brun Scar areas (particularly in the Ruidoso area).
Round two begins Monday with more scattered t-storms ahead of another upper-level disturbance.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1233 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025 NMZ201-203-204-206-207-210>219-221-120245- /O.NEW.KABQ.FA.A.0050.250912T1600Z-250913T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northwest Plateau-Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands- West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque Metro Area-Sandia and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood- 1233 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest, and west central New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque Metro Area and Sandia and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood. In north central New Mexico, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Espanola Valley, Far Northwest Highlands, Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass, Jemez Mountains, Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Northwest Highlands, Santa Fe Metro Area, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Tusas Mountains Including Chama and Upper Rio Grande Valley. In northwest New Mexico, Northwest Plateau. In west central New Mexico, West Central Highlands and West Central Mountains. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A disturbance ahead of a Pacific cold front will create training storms along northwest, west-central, central, and north-central New Mexico. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms may create accumulations up to 2 inches of rainfall. Strong thunderstorms will create locally heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Storms look to persist for several hours, particularly late into the evening hours on Friday along the middle Rio Grande Valley and the north-central mountains. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. && $$ 25/34
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 125 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 125 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 - This weekend will feature near normal temperatures and low to moderate (20-60%) rain chances. Best (40-60%) rain chances will be over southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain in West Texas Saturday afternoon and evening. - Near normal temperatures remain through the middle of next week. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 239 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 222 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025 - There will be a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over western areas this afternoon and evening, another over central and western areas Friday afternoon and evening, then along and east of the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon and evening. - Heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will create flash flooding concerns. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday may create accumulations up to 2 inches for parts of central and northern New Mexico, creating fast rises in streams and arroyos. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1050 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1011 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025 - Thunderstorms push west to east Friday, Friday night, and through the day Saturday. - Much drier and quieter Sunday, returning low end storm chances during the work week. - Above normal temperatures through Friday, becoming below to near normal Saturday and onward. &&
(Today Through 6 PM MDT Sunday).
National Blend Of Models Total Rainfall Forecast.
(Today Through 6 PM MDT Sunday).
Sunday Morning.
Monday Morning.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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