Monsoon's Last Gasp!
August 30, 2025.
Carlsbad, New Mexico.
Looking Northeast From C-Hill.
Carlsbad, New Mexico.
Looking Northeast From C-Hill.
Blog Updated At 9:28 AM MDT, Sunday, Sept 28, 2025.
Marginally Severe T-Storms - Flash Flood Watches.
At 7:30 AM MDT this Sunday morning, a line of thunderstorms stretched from near Alamogordo northeast to near Las Vegas. This line of storms was moving to the northeast. Additional t-storms were located from near Deming northeast to Hatch, and west of El Paso.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue today into tonight across the southern and eastern halves of the state. Additional lines of t-storms may develop later today. Some training activity may also form...one storm after another over the same location.
Flood Watches are in effect for parts of southern, south-central, and southeastern New Mexico today through this evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast in these areas. Rainfall rates in excess of 1-2" per hour are expected with the stronger t-storms. By Monday morning, some locations may see rainfall totals in the 1" to 3" range. Locally higher totals in excess of 3" are possible. This, on top of what has already fallen over the last couple of days, will lead to rapid flash flooding in some locations.
Outside of the Flood Watch areas, storm total rainfall amounts generally are forecast to be in the .10" to .50" range.
Flash Flood concerns are very high for the Ruidoso area today into tonight, especially over and near the burn scars.
The Experimental RRFS model (issued at midnight last night) gets a little crazy with its storm total rainfall forecast just southeast of Ruidoso today into Monday. This is the outliner forecast, and none of the other models come close to its forecast rainfall totals in this area. It is worth noting that by Monday evening, this one model run paints a total of 6" to nearly 8" of rainfall just to the southeast of Ruidoso. Even if this much rain does not fall in that particular area, the trend/forecast for heavy to very rainfall is what is very concerning. A slight shift in the heavier rainfall area towards the Ruidoso area would be potentially catastrophic!
As of 8 AM this Sunday morning, the Hondo NMCC automated weather station is reporting 2.36" of rainfall in the past 24 hours. This is an indicator of what is to come later today and tonight.
The upper-level low centered over southern California this morning will open up and weaken as it kicks a disturbance eastward from it today. This will be the trigger for the t-storm activity. Some of these t-storms may become marginally severe over the southern and eastern halves of the state today into this evening.
This will be our annual monsoon's last gasp after Monday, then we will dry out and warm up.
Flood Watch National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 150 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 NMZ027-028-TXZ270>273-275>278-281600- /O.NEW.KMAF.FA.A.0009.250928T1800Z-250929T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson-Chinati Mountains- Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Fort Davis, Marfa, Pine Springs, Artesia, Carlsbad, Carlsbad Caverns NP, Van Horn, Queen, and Alpine 150 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 /250 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025/ ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico, including the following areas, Eddy County Plains and Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County and southwest Texas, including the following areas, Chinati Mountains, Davis Mountains, Davis Mountains Foothills, Eastern Culberson, Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet, Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, Marfa Plateau and Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. * WHEN...From noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across the watch area today ahead of an approaching upper level system. Above normal moisture over these locations will allow showers and thunderstorms to become heavy rainfall producers. Heavy rainfall amounts in excess of 1 inch in a short period of time may result in flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.&& $$ Lindsey
Flood Watch National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 415 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 NMZ226-281800- /O.CON.KABQ.FA.A.0054.000000T0000Z-250929T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ South Central Mountains- 415 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of central New Mexico, including the following area, South Central Mountains. This includes Ruidoso and the nearby recent wildfire burn scars. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rainfall rates between one-half and one inch per hour along with repeated rounds of storms may lead to flash flooding on burn scars surrounding the Village of Ruidoso. The strongest storms are most likely to occur this afternoon. Storm motion will be southwest to northeast. - http://www.weather.gov/abq/EmergencyPrepFlood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ 34
Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1236 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 NMZ414>417-428-429-TXZ420>424-281800- /O.NEW.KEPZ.FA.A.0013.250928T0636Z-250929T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo- Southeast Tularosa Basin-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- Including the cities of Holloman AFB, Cloudcroft, Hueco Tanks, Sacramento, Indian Hot Springs, Sierra Blanca, Fabens, Tornillo, Cornudas, Apache Summit, Timberon, Crow Flats, Pinon, Loma Linda, Mayhill, Sunspot, Alamogordo, Mountain Park, Salt Flat, Mescalero, Orogrande, Fort Hancock, Tularosa, and Dell City 1236 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of south central New Mexico, including the following areas, East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo, East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet, Otero Mesa, Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet, Southeast Tularosa Basin and West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet and southwest Texas, including the following areas, Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains, Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties, Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County, Salt Basin and Southern Hudspeth Highlands. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Above average moisture and favorable forcing will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms today, capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Storm motions will be quite brisk to the northeast but rainfall rates around a half inch to one in per hour, along with repeated rounds of storms, will enhance flooding risk. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ 40
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 638 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 633 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening across locations west of the Pecos River. - Showers and storms could produce heavy rainfall, which may lead to instances of flash flooding over portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor, and Marfa Plateau, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. - A warmer and drier pattern sets up next week. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 624 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact New Mexico through this evening. Some storms will be capable of heavy rainfall but the flash flood threat is greatest over and below the burn scars in the Ruidoso area. Across south central New Mexico, gusty and erratic winds as well as hail will also be a concern. - Storm coverage will decrease on Monday. Storms that do develop will be focused along and east of the Continental Divide. Flash flooding will remain a concern around Ruidoso. - The end of the monsoon looks to be on schedule as dry and warmer conditions are expected Tuesday through Saturday. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 601 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 541 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning, then more widespread thunderstorms along and east of the Rio Grande Sunday afternoon. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flash flooding. A few storms may become strong to severe. - Drier and warmer weather Tuesday through the rest of the week ahead. Lowland highs back in the upper eighties. &&
(At 7:32 AM MDT).
(As Of 7:30 AM MDT - Since Midnight).
(As Of 9 AM MDT, Sunday, Sept 28, 2025).
(As Of 7:30 AM MDT).
(Valid Today Through Monday).
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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